{
  "_meta": {
    "document": "AI Futures Studio scenario",
    "schemaVersion": "2026.05.28",
    "generatedAt": "2026-05-29T18:32:05.118Z",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://brianletort.ai/industry/future",
    "featureSource": "heuristic",
    "asOfMonth": "2026-05",
    "horizonMonth": "2028-05",
    "horizonLabel": "May 2028",
    "yearsAhead": 2
  },
  "leverState": {
    "month": 5,
    "year": 2028,
    "forces": {
      "saas_disruption": 58,
      "model_capability": 60,
      "inference_cost_decline": 60,
      "open_weight_shift": 52,
      "regulation_intensity": 50,
      "capital_climate": 58,
      "workforce_automation": 55,
      "data_governance_maturity": 55,
      "compute_supply": 52,
      "sovereign_fragmentation": 48
    },
    "assumptions": {
      "cost_collapse": false,
      "gpu_supply_shock": false,
      "safety_incident": false,
      "antitrust_action": false,
      "agi_adjacent_release": false,
      "open_weight_surge": false
    },
    "constraints": {
      "budget_posture": "steady",
      "risk_tolerance": "balanced",
      "sovereignty": "hybrid",
      "regulatory_regime": "moderate"
    },
    "audience": "executive",
    "preset": "base_case"
  },
  "forces": [
    {
      "id": "saas_disruption",
      "label": "SaaS workflow disruption",
      "value": 58
    },
    {
      "id": "model_capability",
      "label": "Model capability progress",
      "value": 60
    },
    {
      "id": "inference_cost_decline",
      "label": "Inference cost decline",
      "value": 60
    },
    {
      "id": "open_weight_shift",
      "label": "Open-weight shift",
      "value": 52
    },
    {
      "id": "regulation_intensity",
      "label": "Regulation and governance intensity",
      "value": 50
    },
    {
      "id": "capital_climate",
      "label": "Capital climate",
      "value": 58
    },
    {
      "id": "workforce_automation",
      "label": "Workforce automation depth",
      "value": 55
    },
    {
      "id": "data_governance_maturity",
      "label": "Data governance maturity",
      "value": 55
    },
    {
      "id": "compute_supply",
      "label": "Compute and power supply",
      "value": 52
    },
    {
      "id": "sovereign_fragmentation",
      "label": "Sovereign fragmentation",
      "value": 48
    }
  ],
  "scenarioSummary": "Scenario shaped by Model capability high, Cost decline high, SaaS disruption high.",
  "emergentThemes": [
    "Model capability rises relative to the base case.",
    "Cost decline rises relative to the base case.",
    "SaaS disruption rises relative to the base case."
  ],
  "marketIndex": {
    "now": 79.3,
    "projected": 91.6
  },
  "categories": [
    {
      "id": "ai_infrastructure",
      "name": "Layer 1 — AI Infrastructure",
      "shortName": "L1 Infrastructure",
      "colorToken": "cyan-400",
      "currentScore": 85.8,
      "projectedScore": 93.8,
      "delta": 8,
      "leaders": [
        {
          "vendorId": "nvidia",
          "vendorName": "NVIDIA",
          "logoDomain": "nvidia.com",
          "projectedScore": 99
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "microsoft",
          "vendorName": "Microsoft",
          "logoDomain": "microsoft.com",
          "projectedScore": 99
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "amazon-web-services",
          "vendorName": "Amazon Web Services",
          "logoDomain": "aws.amazon.com",
          "projectedScore": 92.7
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "model_portfolio",
      "name": "Layer 2 — Model Portfolio",
      "shortName": "L2 Models",
      "colorToken": "orange-400",
      "currentScore": 87.4,
      "projectedScore": 95.7,
      "delta": 8.3,
      "leaders": [
        {
          "vendorId": "openai",
          "vendorName": "OpenAI",
          "logoDomain": "openai.com",
          "projectedScore": 98
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "anthropic",
          "vendorName": "Anthropic",
          "logoDomain": "anthropic.com",
          "projectedScore": 98
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "google",
          "vendorName": "Google",
          "logoDomain": "google.com",
          "projectedScore": 98
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "data_management",
      "name": "Layer 3 — Data Management",
      "shortName": "L3 Data Mgmt",
      "colorToken": "violet-400",
      "currentScore": 86,
      "projectedScore": 94.3,
      "delta": 8.3,
      "leaders": [
        {
          "vendorId": "databricks",
          "vendorName": "Databricks",
          "logoDomain": "databricks.com",
          "projectedScore": 96
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "snowflake",
          "vendorName": "Snowflake",
          "logoDomain": "snowflake.com",
          "projectedScore": 92.5
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ai_ready_data",
      "name": "Layer 4 — AI-Ready Data",
      "shortName": "L4 AI Data",
      "colorToken": "emerald-400",
      "currentScore": 71.8,
      "projectedScore": 87.1,
      "delta": 15.2,
      "leaders": [
        {
          "vendorId": "pinecone",
          "vendorName": "Pinecone",
          "logoDomain": "pinecone.io",
          "projectedScore": 94
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "vercel",
          "vendorName": "Vercel",
          "logoDomain": "vercel.com",
          "projectedScore": 93.2
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "weaviate",
          "vendorName": "Weaviate",
          "logoDomain": "weaviate.io",
          "projectedScore": 89.6
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "developer_tools",
      "name": "Layer 5 — Developer Tools",
      "shortName": "L5 Dev Tools",
      "colorToken": "amber-400",
      "currentScore": 78.8,
      "projectedScore": 92.4,
      "delta": 13.6,
      "leaders": [
        {
          "vendorId": "cursor",
          "vendorName": "Cursor",
          "logoDomain": "cursor.com",
          "projectedScore": 95
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "openai",
          "vendorName": "OpenAI",
          "logoDomain": "openai.com",
          "projectedScore": 95
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "anthropic",
          "vendorName": "Anthropic",
          "logoDomain": "anthropic.com",
          "projectedScore": 95
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "agent_tools",
      "name": "Layer 6 — Agent Tools",
      "shortName": "L6 Agents",
      "colorToken": "rose-400",
      "currentScore": 74.4,
      "projectedScore": 95.5,
      "delta": 21.1,
      "leaders": [
        {
          "vendorId": "anthropic",
          "vendorName": "Anthropic",
          "logoDomain": "anthropic.com",
          "projectedScore": 96
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "servicenow",
          "vendorName": "ServiceNow",
          "logoDomain": "servicenow.com",
          "projectedScore": 96
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "hermes",
          "vendorName": "Hermes",
          "logoDomain": "brianletort.ai",
          "projectedScore": 96
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "commercial_tools",
      "name": "Layer 7 — Commercial Tools",
      "shortName": "L7 Commercial",
      "colorToken": "sky-400",
      "currentScore": 78.3,
      "projectedScore": 88.3,
      "delta": 10,
      "leaders": [
        {
          "vendorId": "microsoft",
          "vendorName": "Microsoft",
          "logoDomain": "microsoft.com",
          "projectedScore": 95
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "google",
          "vendorName": "Google",
          "logoDomain": "google.com",
          "projectedScore": 95
        },
        {
          "vendorId": "harvey",
          "vendorName": "Harvey",
          "logoDomain": "harvey.ai",
          "projectedScore": 91.8
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "kpis": [
    {
      "id": "pct_workflows_ai_operated",
      "label": "Critical workflows AI-operated",
      "unit": "%",
      "format": "percent",
      "base": 7,
      "projected": 24.1,
      "directionGood": "up",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "value": 7
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "value": 15.6
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "value": 24.1
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cost_per_governed_action_index",
      "label": "Cost per governed action (index, 100 = today)",
      "unit": "idx",
      "format": "index",
      "base": 100,
      "projected": 65.6,
      "directionGood": "down",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "value": 100
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "value": 82.8
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "value": 65.6
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "agent_to_human_ratio",
      "label": "Agents per human (instrumented teams)",
      "unit": "x",
      "format": "ratio",
      "base": 0.3,
      "projected": 1.6,
      "directionGood": "up",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "value": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "value": 0.9
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "value": 1.6
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "saas_seat_premium_erosion",
      "label": "SaaS seat pricing renegotiated",
      "unit": "%",
      "format": "percent",
      "base": 6,
      "projected": 21.8,
      "directionGood": "up",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "value": 6
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "value": 13.9
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "value": 21.8
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "open_weight_inference_share",
      "label": "Enterprise inference on open weights",
      "unit": "%",
      "format": "percent",
      "base": 23,
      "projected": 31.9,
      "directionGood": "up",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "value": 23
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "value": 27.5
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "value": 31.9
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "governed_context_coverage",
      "label": "Enterprise data agent-ready",
      "unit": "%",
      "format": "percent",
      "base": 19,
      "projected": 35,
      "directionGood": "up",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "value": 19
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "value": 27
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "value": 35
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "winners": [
    {
      "vendorId": "zeroclaw",
      "vendorName": "Zeroclaw",
      "category": "agent_tools",
      "currentScore": 66,
      "projectedScore": 96,
      "delta": 30,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "hermes",
      "vendorName": "Hermes",
      "category": "agent_tools",
      "currentScore": 70,
      "projectedScore": 96,
      "delta": 26,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "sierra",
      "vendorName": "Sierra",
      "category": "agent_tools",
      "currentScore": 69,
      "projectedScore": 93.7,
      "delta": 24.7,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "vercel",
      "vendorName": "Vercel",
      "category": "ai_ready_data",
      "currentScore": 71,
      "projectedScore": 93.2,
      "delta": 22.2,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "harvey",
      "vendorName": "Harvey",
      "category": "commercial_tools",
      "currentScore": 72,
      "projectedScore": 91.8,
      "delta": 19.8,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "cursor",
      "vendorName": "Cursor",
      "category": "developer_tools",
      "currentScore": 77,
      "projectedScore": 95,
      "delta": 18,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    }
  ],
  "losers": [
    {
      "vendorId": "microsoft",
      "vendorName": "Microsoft",
      "category": "commercial_tools",
      "currentScore": 92,
      "projectedScore": 95,
      "delta": 3,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "nvidia",
      "vendorName": "NVIDIA",
      "category": "ai_infrastructure",
      "currentScore": 96,
      "projectedScore": 99,
      "delta": 3,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "openai",
      "vendorName": "OpenAI",
      "category": "model_portfolio",
      "currentScore": 94,
      "projectedScore": 98,
      "delta": 4,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "amazon-web-services",
      "vendorName": "Amazon Web Services",
      "category": "ai_infrastructure",
      "currentScore": 88,
      "projectedScore": 92.7,
      "delta": 4.7,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "wiz",
      "vendorName": "Wiz",
      "category": "commercial_tools",
      "currentScore": 80,
      "projectedScore": 86.6,
      "delta": 6.6,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    },
    {
      "vendorId": "salesforce",
      "vendorName": "Salesforce",
      "category": "commercial_tools",
      "currentScore": 81,
      "projectedScore": 87.7,
      "delta": 6.7,
      "projectedPosition": "leader"
    }
  ],
  "forceContributions": [
    {
      "forceId": "saas_disruption",
      "label": "SaaS workflow disruption",
      "short": "SaaS disruption",
      "contribution": 0
    },
    {
      "forceId": "model_capability",
      "label": "Model capability progress",
      "short": "Model capability",
      "contribution": 0.5
    },
    {
      "forceId": "inference_cost_decline",
      "label": "Inference cost decline",
      "short": "Cost decline",
      "contribution": 0.5
    },
    {
      "forceId": "open_weight_shift",
      "label": "Open-weight shift",
      "short": "Open weights",
      "contribution": 0
    },
    {
      "forceId": "regulation_intensity",
      "label": "Regulation and governance intensity",
      "short": "Regulation",
      "contribution": 0
    },
    {
      "forceId": "capital_climate",
      "label": "Capital climate",
      "short": "Capital",
      "contribution": 0.5
    },
    {
      "forceId": "workforce_automation",
      "label": "Workforce automation depth",
      "short": "Workforce",
      "contribution": 0.2
    },
    {
      "forceId": "data_governance_maturity",
      "label": "Data governance maturity",
      "short": "Data governance",
      "contribution": 0.2
    },
    {
      "forceId": "compute_supply",
      "label": "Compute and power supply",
      "short": "Compute supply",
      "contribution": 0.1
    },
    {
      "forceId": "sovereign_fragmentation",
      "label": "Sovereign fragmentation",
      "short": "Sovereignty",
      "contribution": 0
    }
  ],
  "shockEvents": []
}