---
title: The State of AI & Data — May 2028 (projected)
document: ai-futures-studio-scenario
canonicalUrl: https://brianletort.ai/industry/future
schemaVersion: 2026.05.28
featureSource: heuristic
asOfMonth: 2026-05
horizonMonth: 2028-05
yearsAhead: 2
preset: base_case
audience: executive
forces:
  - id: saas_disruption
    label: SaaS workflow disruption
    value: 58
  - id: model_capability
    label: Model capability progress
    value: 60
  - id: inference_cost_decline
    label: Inference cost decline
    value: 60
  - id: open_weight_shift
    label: Open-weight shift
    value: 52
  - id: regulation_intensity
    label: Regulation and governance intensity
    value: 50
  - id: capital_climate
    label: Capital climate
    value: 58
  - id: workforce_automation
    label: Workforce automation depth
    value: 55
  - id: data_governance_maturity
    label: Data governance maturity
    value: 55
  - id: compute_supply
    label: Compute and power supply
    value: 52
  - id: sovereign_fragmentation
    label: Sovereign fragmentation
    value: 48
assumptions: []
constraints:
  budget_posture: steady
  risk_tolerance: balanced
  sovereignty: hybrid
  regulatory_regime: moderate
---

# The State of AI & Data — May 2028

*A projected future state from the AI Futures Studio. As-of 2026-05, projected 2 years forward. Feature synthesis: heuristic.*

## Scenario

Scenario shaped by Model capability high, Cost decline high, SaaS disruption high.

## Levers

- **SaaS workflow disruption:** 58/100
- **Model capability progress:** 60/100
- **Inference cost decline:** 60/100
- **Open-weight shift:** 52/100
- **Regulation and governance intensity:** 50/100
- **Capital climate:** 58/100
- **Workforce automation depth:** 55/100
- **Data governance maturity:** 55/100
- **Compute and power supply:** 52/100
- **Sovereign fragmentation:** 48/100

## Market index

Aggregate market index moves 79.3 → 91.6.

## Headline KPIs

- **Critical workflows AI-operated:** 7 → 24.1 %
- **Cost per governed action (index, 100 = today):** 100 → 65.6 idx
- **Agents per human (instrumented teams):** 0.3 → 1.6 x
- **SaaS seat pricing renegotiated:** 6 → 21.8 %
- **Enterprise inference on open weights:** 23 → 31.9 %
- **Enterprise data agent-ready:** 19 → 35 %

## Category trajectories

- **Layer 1 — AI Infrastructure:** 85.8 → 93.8 (+8). Leaders: NVIDIA (99), Microsoft (99), Amazon Web Services (92.7).
- **Layer 2 — Model Portfolio:** 87.4 → 95.7 (+8.3). Leaders: OpenAI (98), Anthropic (98), Google (98).
- **Layer 3 — Data Management:** 86 → 94.3 (+8.3). Leaders: Databricks (96), Snowflake (92.5).
- **Layer 4 — AI-Ready Data:** 71.8 → 87.1 (+15.2). Leaders: Pinecone (94), Vercel (93.2), Weaviate (89.6).
- **Layer 5 — Developer Tools:** 78.8 → 92.4 (+13.6). Leaders: Cursor (95), OpenAI (95), Anthropic (95).
- **Layer 6 — Agent Tools:** 74.4 → 95.5 (+21.1). Leaders: Anthropic (96), ServiceNow (96), Hermes (96).
- **Layer 7 — Commercial Tools:** 78.3 → 88.3 (+10). Leaders: Microsoft (95), Google (95), Harvey (91.8).

## Projected gainers

- **Zeroclaw** in agent_tools: 66 → 96 (+30).
- **Hermes** in agent_tools: 70 → 96 (+26).
- **Sierra** in agent_tools: 69 → 93.7 (+24.7).
- **Vercel** in ai_ready_data: 71 → 93.2 (+22.2).
- **Harvey** in commercial_tools: 72 → 91.8 (+19.8).
- **Cursor** in developer_tools: 77 → 95 (+18).

## Projected decliners

- **Microsoft** in commercial_tools: 92 → 95 (3).
- **NVIDIA** in ai_infrastructure: 96 → 99 (3).
- **OpenAI** in model_portfolio: 94 → 98 (4).
- **Amazon Web Services** in ai_infrastructure: 88 → 92.7 (4.7).
- **Wiz** in commercial_tools: 80 → 86.6 (6.6).
- **Salesforce** in commercial_tools: 81 → 87.7 (6.7).

## Shocks

_No assumption shocks fired in this scenario._

## Emergent themes

- Model capability rises relative to the base case.
- Cost decline rises relative to the base case.
- SaaS disruption rises relative to the base case.

---

Interactive: <https://brianletort.ai/industry/future>. Compact JSON: <https://brianletort.ai/industry/future/llm.json>. Numbers are editorial projection indices, not market share.