{
  "_meta": {
    "document": "AI Futures Studio — control contract",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://brianletort.ai/industry/future",
    "scenarioJsonUrl": "https://brianletort.ai/industry/future/llm.json",
    "scenarioMarkdownUrl": "https://brianletort.ai/industry/future/llm.md",
    "asOfMonth": "2026-05",
    "lastUpdated": "2026-05-28",
    "generatedAt": "2026-06-11T09:28:11.867Z"
  },
  "overview": "Set scenario assumptions as query params on the scenario endpoints; the deterministic projection engine returns category indices, KPIs, gainers/decliners, opportunity spaces, and force contributions. The LLM layer only explains the forecast — it does not generate it. Numbers are editorial projection indices (0-100), not market share.",
  "usage": {
    "method": "GET",
    "endpoints": {
      "json": "https://brianletort.ai/industry/future/llm.json",
      "markdown": "https://brianletort.ai/industry/future/llm.md"
    },
    "precedence": [
      "preset (base layer)",
      "dials (expand to forces)",
      "forces (override dials)",
      "assumptions, constraints, audience, horizon"
    ],
    "notes": [
      "All params are optional. With none set, the base-case scenario is returned.",
      "Forces and dials are integers 0-100 where 50 is the consensus/base case.",
      "Unrecognized params are ignored. Prefer dials for a quick scenario, forces for precision.",
      "The studio's own permalink blob is also accepted as ?s=<base64url>."
    ]
  },
  "horizon": {
    "param": "horizon",
    "format": "YYYY-MM (or YYYY, which defaults to June)",
    "alternative": "year=YYYY&month=1..12",
    "min": "2026-06",
    "max": "2031-05",
    "maxYearsAhead": 5
  },
  "audience": {
    "param": "audience",
    "default": "executive",
    "options": [
      {
        "id": "executive",
        "label": "Executive"
      },
      {
        "id": "architect",
        "label": "Architect"
      }
    ]
  },
  "dials": [
    {
      "param": "ai_pace",
      "label": "AI capability & cost",
      "description": "How fast AI gets more capable and cheaper to run, including the rise of open-weight models. Higher means faster, cheaper, more open intelligence.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "lowLabel": "Plateau",
      "highLabel": "Breakneck",
      "controlsForces": [
        "model_capability",
        "inference_cost_decline",
        "open_weight_shift"
      ]
    },
    {
      "param": "disruption_speed",
      "label": "Disruption speed",
      "description": "How fast agents take over today's software workflows and coordination work. Higher means agents operate more of the enterprise, faster.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "lowLabel": "Gradual",
      "highLabel": "Rapid",
      "controlsForces": [
        "saas_disruption",
        "workforce_automation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "param": "governance_pressure",
      "label": "Regulation & governance",
      "description": "How much regulation, governance maturity, and sovereignty shape the market. Higher means tighter controls and more governed, sovereign AI.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "lowLabel": "Light touch",
      "highLabel": "Hard gates",
      "controlsForces": [
        "regulation_intensity",
        "data_governance_maturity",
        "sovereign_fragmentation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "param": "capital_climate_dial",
      "label": "Capital & compute",
      "description": "How abundant investment capital and compute capacity are. Higher means a capital-and-compute flood; lower means an AI funding and supply winter.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "lowLabel": "Winter",
      "highLabel": "Flood",
      "controlsForces": [
        "capital_climate",
        "compute_supply"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "forces": [
    {
      "param": "saas_disruption",
      "label": "SaaS workflow disruption",
      "short": "SaaS disruption",
      "description": "How aggressively agents take over seat-based SaaS workflows, demoting applications to systems of record and shifting work to the agent layer.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "Seats hold",
      "highLabel": "Agents operate"
    },
    {
      "param": "model_capability",
      "label": "Model capability progress",
      "short": "Model capability",
      "description": "Rate of frontier reasoning, coding, and tool-use progress. Higher values pull more decision work into the model and agent layers.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "Plateau",
      "highLabel": "Step changes"
    },
    {
      "param": "inference_cost_decline",
      "label": "Inference cost decline",
      "short": "Cost decline",
      "description": "How fast cost per token and per governed action falls. Faster decline moves more workloads from premium frontier models to routed open stacks.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "Sticky cost",
      "highLabel": "Cost collapse"
    },
    {
      "param": "open_weight_shift",
      "label": "Open-weight shift",
      "short": "Open weights",
      "description": "Balance between frontier-closed and open-weight ecosystems. Higher values mean open models capture more enterprise inference and bargaining power.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "Frontier-led",
      "highLabel": "Open-led"
    },
    {
      "param": "regulation_intensity",
      "label": "Regulation and governance intensity",
      "short": "Regulation",
      "description": "Strength of regulatory and governance pressure. Higher values reward data governance and audit while slowing unsupervised agent autonomy.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "Light touch",
      "highLabel": "Hard gates"
    },
    {
      "param": "capital_climate",
      "label": "Capital climate",
      "short": "Capital",
      "description": "Availability of investment capital for AI. High is abundant capex and buildout; low is an AI funding winter that compresses every layer.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "AI winter",
      "highLabel": "Capital flood"
    },
    {
      "param": "workforce_automation",
      "label": "Workforce automation depth",
      "short": "Workforce",
      "description": "How deeply coordination and middle-layer work is automated by agents, compressing meetings, status, and handoff roles.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "Human-run",
      "highLabel": "Agent-run"
    },
    {
      "param": "data_governance_maturity",
      "label": "Data governance maturity",
      "short": "Data governance",
      "description": "Enterprise readiness of governed context: trusted data products, semantics, lineage, and policy that let agents move from advice to action.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "Fragmented",
      "highLabel": "Governed"
    },
    {
      "param": "compute_supply",
      "label": "Compute and power supply",
      "short": "Compute supply",
      "description": "Availability of accelerators, power, cooling, and interconnect. High is abundant capacity; low is a supply-constrained, rationed buildout.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "Rationed",
      "highLabel": "Abundant"
    },
    {
      "param": "sovereign_fragmentation",
      "label": "Sovereign fragmentation",
      "short": "Sovereignty",
      "description": "Degree of geopolitical and sovereign-AI fragmentation. Higher values favor regional infrastructure and serving while adding frontier friction.",
      "range": [
        0,
        100
      ],
      "baseline": 50,
      "lowLabel": "Global market",
      "highLabel": "Fragmented blocs"
    }
  ],
  "assumptions": {
    "param": "assume",
    "format": "comma-separated ids, e.g. assume=cost_collapse,gpu_supply_shock",
    "alternative": "<assumptionId>=true",
    "options": [
      {
        "id": "cost_collapse",
        "label": "DeepSeek-style cost collapse",
        "description": "A low-cost open stack delivers frontier-adjacent capability, resetting AI procurement psychology and accelerating routed, open inference."
      },
      {
        "id": "gpu_supply_shock",
        "label": "Compute supply shock",
        "description": "An accelerator, power, or interconnect shortage rations capacity and pushes cost per action up across the stack."
      },
      {
        "id": "safety_incident",
        "label": "Major safety or security incident",
        "description": "A high-profile agent action failure or context-contamination breach triggers tighter controls and slows unsupervised autonomy."
      },
      {
        "id": "antitrust_action",
        "label": "Antitrust action on a hyperscaler",
        "description": "Regulatory action reshapes platform bundling, opening room for challengers and independent control planes."
      },
      {
        "id": "agi_adjacent_release",
        "label": "AGI-adjacent frontier release",
        "description": "A frontier lab ships a model that materially expands autonomous capability, pulling more work into the model and agent layers."
      },
      {
        "id": "open_weight_surge",
        "label": "Open-weight quality surge",
        "description": "Open-weight models close the quality gap in bounded workflows, shifting enterprise leverage and serving demand toward open ecosystems."
      }
    ]
  },
  "constraints": [
    {
      "param": "budget_posture",
      "label": "Budget posture",
      "default": "steady",
      "options": [
        {
          "id": "expansion",
          "label": "Expansion"
        },
        {
          "id": "steady",
          "label": "Steady"
        },
        {
          "id": "contraction",
          "label": "Contraction"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "param": "risk_tolerance",
      "label": "Risk tolerance",
      "default": "balanced",
      "options": [
        {
          "id": "aggressive",
          "label": "Aggressive"
        },
        {
          "id": "balanced",
          "label": "Balanced"
        },
        {
          "id": "conservative",
          "label": "Conservative"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "param": "sovereignty",
      "label": "Sovereignty requirement",
      "default": "hybrid",
      "options": [
        {
          "id": "global",
          "label": "Global market"
        },
        {
          "id": "hybrid",
          "label": "Hybrid"
        },
        {
          "id": "sovereign_required",
          "label": "Sovereign required"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "param": "regulatory_regime",
      "label": "Regulatory regime",
      "default": "moderate",
      "options": [
        {
          "id": "light",
          "label": "Light"
        },
        {
          "id": "moderate",
          "label": "Moderate"
        },
        {
          "id": "strict",
          "label": "Strict"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "presets": [
    {
      "param": "preset=base_case",
      "id": "base_case",
      "name": "Base Case",
      "summary": "The consensus trajectory. Agents keep eating workflow value, governed data keeps compounding, and the model layer stays competitive without a shock."
    },
    {
      "param": "preset=aggressive_acceleration",
      "id": "aggressive_acceleration",
      "name": "Aggressive Acceleration",
      "summary": "Capability and capital both run hot. Agents operate most workflows, SaaS seats erode fast, and the model and agent layers absorb the value."
    },
    {
      "param": "preset=regulatory_clampdown",
      "id": "regulatory_clampdown",
      "name": "Regulatory Clampdown",
      "summary": "Hard governance arrives. Audit-the-workflow rules reward governed data and control planes while slowing unsupervised autonomy."
    },
    {
      "param": "preset=open_weight_surge",
      "id": "open_weight_surge",
      "name": "Open-Weight Surge",
      "summary": "Open models close the gap in bounded workflows. Enterprise leverage and serving demand shift to open ecosystems and routed inference."
    },
    {
      "param": "preset=capital_winter",
      "id": "capital_winter",
      "name": "Capital Winter",
      "summary": "AI funding contracts. Token bills become career-limiting, projects get cut to measurable workflows, and cost per governed action rules every call."
    },
    {
      "param": "preset=sovereign_fragmentation",
      "id": "sovereign_fragmentation",
      "name": "Sovereign Fragmentation",
      "summary": "Geopolitics splits the market into blocs. Sovereign infrastructure and serving rise; frontier access gets friction and portability becomes policy."
    }
  ],
  "examples": [
    {
      "description": "Aggressive acceleration preset, projected to mid-2030",
      "url": "https://brianletort.ai/industry/future/llm.json?preset=aggressive_acceleration&horizon=2030-06"
    },
    {
      "description": "Custom: fast AI pace, slow disruption, with a cost-collapse shock",
      "url": "https://brianletort.ai/industry/future/llm.json?ai_pace=85&disruption_speed=35&assume=cost_collapse&horizon=2029"
    },
    {
      "description": "Granular force override (architect lens), markdown output",
      "url": "https://brianletort.ai/industry/future/llm.md?model_capability=90&open_weight_shift=80&regulatory_regime=strict&audience=architect"
    }
  ]
}