Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 02 · Week 18 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$52BPrior ~$50B · Up | ~$35BPrior ~$30B · Up | 0.6 | Anthropic disclosed ~$30B ARR (3x in four months) and is fielding offers for a ~$50B raise at a $900B pre-money on Apr 29 — frontier labs now reprice as scaling enterprise-software businesses with 8 of Fortune 10 paying. The Friday May 1 Pentagon eight-vendor classified-network deal then introduced a federal-procurement vendor-risk wedge no W17 framework captured: Anthropic was explicitly excluded with Mythos cited. Boards and LPs should underwrite ARR cadence, contract concentration on hyperscaler GPU/Trainium supply, AND federal-channel posture — not story or option value. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedMicrosoft Azure, Google Cloud, AWS, Meta | ~$58BPrior ~$48B · Up | ~$13BPrior ~$10B · Up | 0.22 | All four hyperscalers reset 2026 capex on Apr 29 to a combined $695-725B (+77% YoY) — MSFT $190B, GOOG $180-190B, META $125-145B, AMZN $200B — while every CFO repeated 'compute constrained.' Architects should assume zero capacity relief through 2026 and lock multi-year terms now; investors should monitor the capex / AI-revenue ratio (currently ~5.0-5.2, threshold >6.0) since the ratio only stays healthy if AI revenue keeps growing 60-120% YoY. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Crusoe, Nebius, Applied Digital | ~$18BPrior ~$15B · Up | ~$2.0BPrior $1.6B · Up | 0.11 | CoreWeave's April closed three multi-year anchor commits (Meta +$21B Apr 9, Anthropic Apr 10, Jane Street $6B + $1B equity Apr 15) while Oracle landed a $16B project-finance package for a 1.4 GW OpenAI campus in Michigan (Apr 25, BofA-led) — neocloud capacity is now structurally pre-sold through 2032. Operators should look past headline backlog to customer concentration (4-5 frontier customers ~80%+) and the project-finance debt structure that will start showing up in covenant disclosures. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs | ~$42BPrior ~$42B · Flat | IndirectPrior Indirect · Flat | n/a | Apple posted record R&D $11.4B (+34% YoY, Apr 30) and called out 'amazing platforms for AI and agentic tools' on Mac Studio and mini, while Amazon's custom-silicon line (Graviton, Trainium, Nitro) crossed a $20B annual run rate at triple-digit YoY growth — on-prem and sovereign AI buildouts are now first-class procurement tracks, not edge cases. Operators evaluating new AI capacity should run a parallel on-prem / sovereign track alongside hyperscaler RFPs; architects should assume the 36-48mo time-to-power constraint applies equally and pre-secure power siting now. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$52Bvs ~$50B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$35Bvs ~$30B · Up
- Burn / rev
- 0.6Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
The Anthropic April print is the headline: ~$30B ARR (with internal figures cited as high as $40B) and pre-emptive investor offers at $900B pre-money would put it ahead of OpenAI's $852B March valuation. Microsoft's Apr 29 disclosure of a $37B AI annual run rate (+123% YoY) is the cleanest public proxy for the OpenAI partnership revenue line and corroborates that frontier-lab revenue is compounding faster than burn. Q1's $172B+ in already-closed mega-rounds (OpenAI $122B, Anthropic $30B, xAI $20B) plus continued strategic capital from Amazon ($25B Anthropic) and Google ($40B Anthropic compute) extend top-3 runway materially even at projected ~$17B/yr OpenAI burn. The Friday May 1 Pentagon eight-vendor classified-network slate then opened federal procurement as a distinct earn-out channel for the seven frontier-relevant vendors included (OpenAI plus six platform partners) while explicitly excluding Anthropic on supply-chain-risk grounds — the first public federal-grade vendor-disqualification of the frontier-AI era.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | Anthropic in talks for ~$50B raise at $900B pre-money; would top OpenAI | $40-50B (talks, no term sheet) | CNBC, Bloomberg, TechCrunch |
| Apr 29 | Microsoft AI annual run rate $37B, +123% YoY (proxy for OpenAI partnership rev line) | $37B ARR | Microsoft FY26 Q3 press release |
| Apr 30 | OpenAI confirms Stargate US footprint exceeds 10 GW ahead of plan, +3 GW in 90 days | 10 GW contracted | OpenAI / DigiTimes |
| May 1 | Pentagon eight-vendor classified-network AI procurement deals (OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, AWS, NVIDIA, SpaceX, Reflection AI, Oracle); Anthropic excluded on supply-chain-risk grounds with Mythos cited | Undisclosed (multi-vendor IDIQ-class) | war.gov, AP News, The Verge, Breaking Defense |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $50B, $52B
- Revenue out
- $30B, $35B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, AWS, Meta
- Capital in
- ~$58Bvs ~$48B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$13Bvs ~$10B · Up
- Burn / rev
- 0.22Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
Q1 FY26 prints from MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN all on Apr 29 (AAPL Apr 30) made W18 the heaviest single capex repricing in publication history. Microsoft FY26 capex guide jumped to $190B (vs $154.6B consensus, +61% YoY), with CFO Hood attributing ~$25B of the increase to elevated memory and component prices. Alphabet raised 2026 capex to $180-190B (Q1 alone $35.7B), Meta to $125-145B, with Amazon reaffirming its $200B annual target. Cloud demand remains the offset: Google Cloud +63% with backlog nearly doubling QoQ to $460B, Azure +40%, AWS +28% (15-quarter high), and Microsoft commercial RPO of $627B (+99% YoY). Federal channel opens — Microsoft, AWS, Google, and Oracle each won slots in the May 1 Pentagon eight-vendor classified-network slate, formalizing IL6/IL7-class frontier-AI deployment as a hyperscaler-hosted distribution path with Anthropic the sole frontier-class vendor excluded.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | Microsoft FY26 capex guide $190B (+61% YoY); commercial RPO $627B (+99%) | $190B FY26 capex | Microsoft FY26 Q3 press release |
| Apr 29 | Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $180-190B; Google Cloud backlog $460B (~2x QoQ) | $180-190B 2026 capex | Alphabet Q1 2026 8-K (SEC EDGAR) |
| Apr 29 | Meta raises 2026 capex to $125-145B; cuts 8,000 roles to offset infrastructure spend | $125-145B 2026 capex | Meta Q1 2026 release |
| Apr 29 | Amazon Q1 capex $44.2B (+76% YoY); reaffirms $200B 2026 AI investment target; AWS +28% | $200B 2026 target | Amazon Q1 2026 release / Reuters |
| May 1 | Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle each win slots in Pentagon eight-vendor classified-network AI slate (IL6/IL7-class) | Undisclosed (federal IDIQ-class) | war.gov, oracle.com PR, AP News, Breaking Defense |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $48B, $58B
- Revenue out
- $10B, $13B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Crusoe, Nebius, Applied Digital
- Capital in
- ~$18Bvs ~$15B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$2.0Bvs $1.6B · Up
- Burn / rev
- 0.11Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
April was a record month for neocloud demand pre-commits. The Meta expansion of $21B through Dec 2032 lifts Meta's total CoreWeave commitment to ~$35.2B (existing $14.2B + new $21B) and is anchored by NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform deployments. CoreWeave simultaneously raised $3B convertible debt and $1.75B senior notes to fund the buildout, with planned 2026 capex of $30-35B (more than 2x 2025). Oracle's $16B Michigan project-finance package — the largest single-project-finance transaction in tech infrastructure history, with $14B of bonds placed by BofA — locks in a 1.4 GW OpenAI campus and signals that project-finance structures usually reserved for LNG and toll roads are now being applied to AI compute. Backlog math: $66.8B (Feb) + $21B Meta uplift + Jane Street $6B + Anthropic (undisclosed) puts CoreWeave's revenue backlog likely north of $90B pending the mid-May Q1 print.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 | Meta expands CoreWeave commit by $21B through Dec 2032 (Vera Rubin) | $21B (lifts Meta total to ~$35.2B) | CoreWeave 8-K Ex 99.1 |
| Apr 10 | CoreWeave / Anthropic multi-year compute agreement (Claude development and deployment) | Multi-year, undisclosed | CoreWeave news release |
| Apr 15 | Jane Street signs $6B AI cloud deal + $1B equity in CoreWeave at $109/share | $6B services + $1B equity | Reuters |
| Apr 25 | Oracle closes $16B project-finance package for OpenAI 1.4 GW Michigan campus (BofA-led, $14B bonds) | $16B project finance | Reuters / industry coverage |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $15B, $18B
- Revenue out
- $1.6B, $2B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs
- Capital in
- ~$42Bvs ~$42B · Flat
- Revenue out
- Indirectvs Indirect · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
On-prem / hybrid had no single Q1 catalyst inside the window, but two confirmations matter: Apple's R&D acceleration to $11.4B (Q2 FY26) signals materially higher silicon and platform investment from a non-traditional hyperscaler, and Amazon's custom-silicon $20B+ run rate (Apr 29) confirms the second-largest hyperscaler is now operating a meaningful merchant-equivalent ASIC business. Sovereign AI commitments held at 8 deals / ~$80B+ (UAE Stargate first phase still tracking Q2-Q3 2026 / 200 MW; full 1 GW by 2028). The NVIDIA Q4 FY26 data center print of $62.3B remains the most recent hard datapoint pending the Q1 FY27 release expected late May.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | AWS custom silicon (Graviton/Trainium/Nitro) >$20B annual run rate; OpenAI 2 GW + Anthropic up to 5 GW Trainium commitments | >$20B run rate | Amazon Q1 2026 / Reuters |
| Apr 30 | Apple Q2 FY26 record R&D $11.4B (+34% YoY); Mac Studio / mini sold out on AI / agentic demand | $11.4B R&D quarter | Apple Q2 FY26 / 9to5Mac, MacRumors |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $42B, $42B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a