Money in, revenue out — the full breakdown.

The read

The Anthropic April print is the headline: ~$30B ARR (with internal figures cited as high as $40B) and pre-emptive investor offers at $900B pre-money would put it ahead of OpenAI's $852B March valuation. Microsoft's Apr 29 disclosure of a $37B AI annual run rate (+123% YoY) is the cleanest public proxy for the OpenAI partnership revenue line and corroborates that frontier-lab revenue is compounding faster than burn. Q1's $172B+ in already-closed mega-rounds (OpenAI $122B, Anthropic $30B, xAI $20B) plus continued strategic capital from Amazon ($25B Anthropic) and Google ($40B Anthropic compute) extend top-3 runway materially even at projected ~$17B/yr OpenAI burn.

The read

Q1 FY26 prints from MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN all on Apr 29 (AAPL Apr 30) made W18 the heaviest single capex repricing in publication history. Microsoft FY26 capex guide jumped to $190B (vs $154.6B consensus, +61% YoY), with CFO Hood attributing ~$25B of the increase to elevated memory and component prices. Alphabet raised 2026 capex to $180-190B (Q1 alone $35.7B), Meta to $125-145B, with Amazon reaffirming its $200B annual target. Cloud demand remains the offset: Google Cloud +63% with backlog nearly doubling QoQ to $460B, Azure +40%, AWS +28% (15-quarter high), and Microsoft commercial RPO of $627B (+99% YoY).

The read

April was a record month for neocloud demand pre-commits. The Meta expansion of $21B through Dec 2032 lifts Meta's total CoreWeave commitment to ~$35.2B (existing $14.2B + new $21B) and is anchored by NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform deployments. CoreWeave simultaneously raised $3B convertible debt and $1.75B senior notes to fund the buildout, with planned 2026 capex of $30-35B (more than 2x 2025). Oracle's $16B Michigan project-finance package — the largest single-project-finance transaction in tech infrastructure history, with $14B of bonds placed by BofA — locks in a 1.4 GW OpenAI campus and signals that project-finance structures usually reserved for LNG and toll roads are now being applied to AI compute. Backlog math: $66.8B (Feb) + $21B Meta uplift + Jane Street $6B + Anthropic (undisclosed) puts CoreWeave's revenue backlog likely north of $90B pending the mid-May Q1 print.

The read

On-prem / hybrid had no single Q1 catalyst inside the window, but two confirmations matter: Apple's R&D acceleration to $11.4B (Q2 FY26) signals materially higher silicon and platform investment from a non-traditional hyperscaler, and Amazon's custom-silicon $20B+ run rate (Apr 29) confirms the second-largest hyperscaler is now operating a meaningful merchant-equivalent ASIC business. Sovereign AI commitments held at 8 deals / ~$80B+ (UAE Stargate first phase still tracking Q2-Q3 2026 / 200 MW; full 1 GW by 2028). The NVIDIA Q4 FY26 data center print of $62.3B remains the most recent hard datapoint pending the Q1 FY27 release expected late May.