Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 04 · Week 20 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$52BPrior ~$52B · Flat | ~$48BPrior ~$45B · Up | 0.9 | Anthropic in talks to raise at least $30B at a >$900B valuation (Bloomberg May 12), target close end-May, on April annualized run-rate revenue of ~$30B — boards on Anthropic-dependent contracts should underwrite ~30 months counterparty runway conditional on close; investors should treat the close (not the headline valuation) as the binary read of the week. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedMicrosoft Azure, Google Cloud, AWS, Meta, Oracle | ~$58BPrior ~$58B · Flat | ~$15BPrior ~$13B · Up | 0.26 | OpenAI and Microsoft formalized a $38B cumulative cap on Microsoft's revenue-share payments through 2030 on May 12 — the first hard ceiling on any hyperscaler's AI revenue-capture; architects building on Azure-OpenAI should plan for Microsoft pushing native MAI-line and direct API products into more enterprise workloads through 2027, and operators should expect Azure-OpenAI commercial terms to harden, not loosen, post-cap. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, IREN, Crusoe, Lambda, Applied Digital, Nebius | ~$30BPrior ~$28B · Up | ~$3.0BPrior ~$3.0B · Flat | 0.10 | Nscale closed $790M committed senior debt (+$790M accordion) from five Nordic banks for the Narvik, Norway expansion on May 11 — operators evaluating non-CoreWeave neocloud capacity now have a fresh credit comp; investors should treat this as the template for second-tier neocloud refinancings, not a one-off, and watch the accordion draw cadence as a real-time demand signal. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$45BPrior ~$42B · Up | IndirectPrior Indirect · Flat | n/a | Cisco Q3 FY26 raised FY26 AI infrastructure orders guide from $5B to $9B and AI revenue guide from $3B to $4B on May 13, with Q3 AI orders of $1.9B vs $600M YoY (~$300M from non-hyperscaler neocloud / sovereign / enterprise) — architects should re-baseline enterprise AI fabric demand from a 2027-2028 thesis to a real 2026-print risk; operators should expect lead-time pressure on Silicon One, Nexus 9000, and Hypershield SKUs. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$52Bvs ~$52B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$48Bvs ~$45B · Up
- Burn / rev
- 0.9Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
Anthropic's $30B / >$900B-valuation round (Bloomberg May 12) progressed toward a target end-May close on top of $30B+ April ARR; the round is unsigned. OpenAI launched a $4B+ Deployment Company with TPG, Advent, Bain Capital, and Brookfield (May 11), folding in UK consultancy Tomoro for ~150 deployment engineers — a structural shift toward embedded enterprise services on top of model APIs. Capital-in holds at the W19 level since the Anthropic round is not closed; revenue-out ticks up as labs absorb a services-and-deployment cost layer alongside compute and the Anthropic ARR continues compounding.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11 | OpenAI Deployment Company launch with TPG / Advent / Bain Capital / Brookfield (>$4B initial commitment, 19-firm consortium); Tomoro acquisition for ~150 enterprise AI engineers | $4B+ | PYMNTS, Yahoo Finance, TheNextWeb |
| May 12 | Anthropic in talks to raise at least $30B at >$900B valuation; target close end-May; April ARR ~$30B | $30B (target) | Bloomberg (primary) |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $50B, $52B, $52B, $52B
- Revenue out
- $30B, $35B, $45B, $48B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, AWS, Meta, Oracle
- Capital in
- ~$58Bvs ~$58B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$15Bvs ~$13B · Up
- Burn / rev
- 0.26Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
No major hyperscaler earnings inside W20 (NVIDIA Q1 FY27 print expected W21 May 20). The structural item: OpenAI and Microsoft set a $38B cumulative cap on Microsoft's revenue-share payments through 2030 (May 12), completing the renegotiation thread that opened in late 2025 and freeing OpenAI to layer Anthropic-style multi-cloud commitments. W18 hyperscaler aggregate capex range $695-725B holds; no fresh capex resets. Cisco's Q3 FY26 AI orders guide raise ($5B to $9B annual) is the strongest enterprise-pull signal of the week and lands as a leading indicator for hyperscaler tail demand.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 12 | OpenAI-Microsoft cumulative revenue-share cap formalized at $38B through 2030 | $38B cap | The Hindu / Reuters-derived, ResultSense |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $48B, $58B, $58B, $58B
- Revenue out
- $10B, $13B, $13B, $15B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, IREN, Crusoe, Lambda, Applied Digital, Nebius
- Capital in
- ~$30Bvs ~$28B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$3.0Bvs ~$3.0B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- 0.10Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
Nscale closed $790M committed senior debt from ABN AMRO, DNB, Eksfin, Nordea, and SEB for the Narvik, Norway expansion on May 11, with a matching $790M uncommitted accordion option — taking the company's funding stack to ~$4.2B since February and Norway's largest AI infra investment, with ~30k Rubin GPUs targeted. Alpha Compute closed a small $32.2M two-year lease with an unnamed 'leading frontier AI lab' on May 12 (504 B200s in Canada). CoreWeave's Q1 print and 10-Q both landed inside W19, so the headline neocloud watchlist resolved before W20 opened — capital-in drift is led by Nscale.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11 | Nscale: $790M committed senior debt + $790M uncommitted accordion (Narvik, Norway; ABN AMRO / DNB / Eksfin / Nordea / SEB; ~30k Rubin GPUs; total stack ~$4.2B) | $790M (+$790M accordion) | Nscale press release, Tech.eu, FinSMEs |
| May 12 | Alpha Compute: $32.2M two-year lease with 'leading frontier AI lab' (504 NVIDIA B200 GPUs, Canada); ~$16.1M ARR | $32M | Markets Insider / Business Insider (PR-led, single source) |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $15B, $18B, $28B, $30B
- Revenue out
- $1.6B, $2B, $3B, $3B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$45Bvs ~$42B · Up
- Revenue out
- Indirectvs Indirect · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Cisco Q3 FY26 (May 13) printed record $15.8B revenue (+12% YoY, beating $15.56B consensus) and raised FY26 AI orders guide 80% to $9B (from $5B) and AI revenue guide to $4B (from $3B); Q3 AI orders were $1.9B with ~$300M from non-hyperscaler neocloud, sovereign, and enterprise customers against a $3B pipeline. Applied Materials Q2 FY26 (May 14) printed a record $7.91B (+11% YoY) with record 50.0% non-GAAP gross margin and guided semicap equipment to grow >30% in calendar 2026 — upstream validation of AI capex velocity. UK signed a £175M / 10-year sovereign data-and-AI deal with Quantexa for HMRC (May 14); Canada-TELUS BC Sovereign AI Factory announced May 11 (60K NVIDIA GPUs by 2032).
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | Cisco Q3 FY26: record $15.8B revenue (+12% YoY); FY26 AI orders guide raised $5B to $9B; FY26 AI revenue guide raised $3B to $4B; Q3 AI orders $1.9B vs $600M YoY | +$4B FY26 AI orders raise | Cisco PR Newswire (primary), CNBC, FT.com data feed |
| May 14 | Applied Materials Q2 FY26: record $7.91B revenue (+11% YoY); record 50.0% non-GAAP gross margin; calendar-2026 semicap growth guide >30% | $7.9B Q2 print | Applied Materials IR press release (primary) |
| May 14 | HMRC selects Quantexa for £175M / 10-year sovereign data-and-AI transformation partnership | £175M (~$230M) | Quantexa announcement via Finanznachrichten |
| May 11 | TELUS + Government of Canada: BC Sovereign AI Factory three-site cluster (60K+ NVIDIA GPUs, 150 MW by 2032) | Federal program funding (undisclosed) | TELUS, CNW Newswire, CBC |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $42B, $42B, $42B, $45B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a