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Capital flow drill-down

Money in, revenue out — the full breakdown.

Issue 06 · Week 22 of 2026.

The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and a per-category trend across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.

Category

Frontier Labs.

OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI

Capital in

~$90B

vs ~$52B

Revenue out

~$20B

vs ~$48B

Burn / rev

~1.3x

Lower means more capital out than in.

The read

The dominant 90-day inflow is Anthropic's $65B Series H (closed May 28, $965B post-money), now the most valuable private AI company — but note ~$15B is previously-committed hyperscaler capital, not all fresh cash. Mistral added a ~$830M debt facility and reaffirmed a ~EUR 4B France+Sweden buildout while signaling custom-chip ambitions. Revenue is accelerating (Anthropic guided a >$50B annualized run-rate by end-June); operationally the category is still capital-hungry but converging toward breakeven for the leader.

This week’s transactions

  • May 28

    Anthropic Series H

    Company release, TechCrunch, Bloomberg

    $65B ($965B post-money)
  • May 28

    Mistral debt facility + EU buildout reaffirmed

    Mistral AI summit coverage

    ~$830M

Trend across recent issues

W17W18W19W20W21W22
Capital inRevenue out/$B per issue

Category

Hyperscaler-Hosted.

Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI

Capital in

~$180B

vs ~$60B

Revenue out

~$60B

vs ~$20B

Burn / rev

~0.3x

Lower means more capital out than in.

The read

Top-4 hyperscaler 2026 capex guidance (~$725B) was set at late-April earnings; no new prints landed in-window, so this is deployment run-rate rather than a fresh commitment. Demand stays strong (one cloud unit grew 63% YoY to ~$20B/quarter with a ~$460B backlog). This cohort is cash-generative (capex ~30% of revenue), unlike the pure-play categories; the most consequential in-window item is the confirmation that hyperscaler capital is now embedded directly in frontier-lab cap tables.

This week’s transactions

  • May 28

    Hyperscaler capital embedded in Anthropic round

    Anthropic round disclosure

    ~$15B committed

Trend across recent issues

W17W18W19W20W21W22
Capital inRevenue out/$B per issue

Category

Neoclouds.

CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN

Capital in

~$12B

vs ~$30B

Revenue out

~$5B

vs ~$3.0B

Burn / rev

~3x

Lower means more capital out than in.

The read

Within-window: IREN booked a ~$9.7B Microsoft contract (~$1.94B annualized, 20% prepaid) alongside a $3.4B NVIDIA contract and a $2.1B NVIDIA investment option. Recent 90-day capital includes Nscale's $2B Series C ($14.6B valuation) and Nebius lifting 2026 capex guidance to $20-25B. Revenue is scaling fast (sector leader ~$2.1B/quarter) but capex dwarfs revenue, keeping burn-to-revenue ~3x — backlogs, not current cash flow, are the real asset here.

This week’s transactions

  • May 29

    IREN-Microsoft AI-cloud contract

    Company release, Reuters

    ~$9.7B
  • May 2026

    Nscale Series C

    Company release

    $2B ($14.6B valuation)

Trend across recent issues

W17W18W19W20W21W22
Capital inRevenue out/$B per issue

Category

On-Prem / Hybrid.

Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE

Capital in

~$90B

vs ~$45B

Revenue out

~$35B

vs Indirect

Burn / rev

~2x

Lower means more capital out than in.

The read

The marquee in-window event is a ~EUR 75B / 5GW France commitment announced May 30, the largest single European AI-infrastructure pledge to date (phase 1 ~EUR 45B / 3.1GW by 2031). Sovereign and national programs continue to dominate gross commitments, though these are largely pre-revenue, nation-building capital. Enterprise/OEM AI-server revenue (Dell/HPE/Cisco class) is the monetized layer, growing but harder to isolate; burn-to-revenue is elevated because sovereign capacity is built years ahead of demand.

This week’s transactions

  • May 30

    SoftBank France AI data-center program

    SoftBank release, Choose France summit

    up to EUR 75B / 5GW

Trend across recent issues

W17W18W19W20W21W22
Capital inRevenue out/$B per issue

Methodology

Capital-in and revenue-out figures are quarterly or annualized as noted in the row, sourced from public earnings disclosures, SEC filings, and lab and vendor announcements. Burn-to-Revenue is revenue divided by committed capital. The trend chart shows up to eight prior issues. Data is updated weekly; revisions in future issues do not retroactively edit this one.

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