{"stable_id":"1d67e3416e59a2dd","slug":"ecmwf-aifs-operational-forecast","company":"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts","workflow_name":"AIFS Single operational ML forecast production","function_code":"engineering","pattern_codes":["continuous_decisioning"],"changed_assumption":"An ML forecast can run as a supported production system alongside retained physics-based forecasting.","evidence_strength":"verified","publication_tier":"showcase","freshness":"current","reviewed_at":"2026-08-23","updated_at":"2026-08-22","source_quality_summary":"1 peer reviewed, 1 primary; publication outcomes are verified.","caveat_summary":"Version-to-version AIFS comparison, not universal superiority over IFS; skill varies by variable and lead time.","freshness_caveat":null,"workflow_summary":{"before":[{"actor":"ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System","action":"Runs physics-based numerical weather prediction from operational analyses.","actor_type":"control"},{"actor":"ECMWF forecasters and users","action":"Compare products, interpret uncertainty, and issue decisions through downstream services.","actor_type":"control"}],"hinge":"An ML forecast can run as a supported production system alongside retained physics-based forecasting.","after":[{"actor":"AIFS Single","action":"Generates deterministic global forecasts four times daily from ECMWF analyses.","actor_type":"system"},{"actor":"ECMWF operations and users","action":"Run AIFS alongside IFS, compare performance, and retain physics-based fallback and expert interpretation.","actor_type":"system"}],"decision_mode":"moved","decision_marker":"Selection moves from a fixed rule to the model"},"before":[{"order":1,"actor":"ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System","action":"Runs physics-based numerical weather prediction from operational analyses.","handoff_to":"Forecasters and downstream users","control":"IFS operational verification and 24/7 support."},{"order":2,"actor":"ECMWF forecasters and users","action":"Compare products, interpret uncertainty, and issue decisions through downstream services.","handoff_to":"National services and users","control":"Human/service authority; no single forecast automatically issues a warning."}],"after":[{"order":1,"actor":"AIFS Single","action":"Generates deterministic global forecasts four times daily from ECMWF analyses.","handoff_to":"Operational product dissemination and verification","control":"Physical bounding layers, open scorecards, operational monitoring, and 24/7 support."},{"order":2,"actor":"ECMWF operations and users","action":"Run AIFS alongside IFS, compare performance, and retain physics-based fallback and expert interpretation.","handoff_to":"Downstream forecast products","control":"IFS remains supported; model updates correct issues such as precipitation behavior."}],"decision_rights":"AIFS produces a forecast; ECMWF operations, forecasters, and downstream authorities retain release and warning decisions.","exception_path":"Operational degradation or variable-specific weakness is handled through parallel IFS comparison, monitoring, and version updates.","removed_work":["Some computational steps of a deterministic physics forecast, not human warning authority"],"outcomes":[{"metric":"Operational model skill improvement","baseline":"AIFS Single 1.0.0","result":"4–6% overall skill improvement; up to 12% precipitation improvement in v1.1.0","period":"v1.1.0 released 2025-08-27; peer-reviewed 2026","scale":"24/7 operational global forecasting alongside IFS","attribution_caveat":"Version-to-version AIFS comparison, not universal superiority over IFS; skill varies by variable and lead time.","evidence_label":"verified"}],"executive_lesson":"A credible production transition retains parallel baselines, observable scorecards, and rollback capacity.","anti_pattern":"Do not collapse a version-to-version gain into a claim that AI beats physics everywhere.","questions_for_leaders":["Where is the operating threshold set and who can override it?","What measured result would trigger rollback or retraining?","Which residual decisions must remain human-owned?"],"collections":[],"bundle_version":"1.0.0","bundle_fingerprint":"sha256:c23c6cc2b88153d008ea8fda928f632ce0011fc2d4c5036672a16e5d895bab93","canonical_url":"https://brianletort.ai/transformations/ecmwf-aifs-operational-forecast"}