{"stable_id":"269fe23a18088810","slug":"estonia-ott-employment-triage","company":"Estonian Unemployment Insurance Fund","workflow_name":"OTT employment-prospect decision support","function_code":"customer_service","pattern_codes":["autonomous_with_backstop","continuous_decisioning"],"changed_assumption":"Counselling intensity can be allocated from updated risk evidence instead of manual synthesis alone.","evidence_strength":"reported","publication_tier":"showcase","freshness":"current","reviewed_at":"2026-08-23","updated_at":"2026-08-22","source_quality_summary":"1 independent, 1 primary; publication outcomes are reported.","caveat_summary":"OTT2 98% is prospective and is not counted as achieved.","freshness_caveat":null,"workflow_summary":{"before":[{"actor":"Newly registered jobseeker","action":"Provides registration information to the Estonian Unemployment Insurance Fund.","actor_type":"control"},{"actor":"Employment counsellor","action":"Interprets the one-time score with the client record and allocates support.","actor_type":"control"}],"hinge":"Counselling intensity can be allocated from updated risk evidence instead of manual synthesis alone.","after":[{"actor":"OTT2","action":"Combines registry events and client changes to refresh employment-prospect assessments regularly.","actor_type":"system"},{"actor":"Employment counsellor","action":"Reviews the current assessment and focuses intensive support on higher-risk clients.","actor_type":"system"}],"decision_mode":"bounded_autonomy","decision_marker":"AI acts within a human backstop"},"before":[{"order":1,"actor":"Newly registered jobseeker","action":"Provides registration information to the Estonian Unemployment Insurance Fund.","handoff_to":"OTT1 and counsellor","control":"OTT1 created one employment-prospect assessment at registration."},{"order":2,"actor":"Employment counsellor","action":"Interprets the one-time score with the client record and allocates support.","handoff_to":"Jobseeker service queue","control":"Counsellor owns service choice; published sources do not report a pre-OTT manual cycle time."}],"after":[{"order":1,"actor":"OTT2","action":"Combines registry events and client changes to refresh employment-prospect assessments regularly.","handoff_to":"Employment counsellor","control":"Model is periodically retrained, does not self-modify, and explains influential factors."},{"order":2,"actor":"Employment counsellor","action":"Reviews the current assessment and focuses intensive support on higher-risk clients.","handoff_to":"Jobseeker","control":"Human service decision; the >98% OTT2 target remains under 2026 pilot evaluation."}],"decision_rights":"Counsellors own interventions; the model is periodically retrained and does not change autonomously.","exception_path":"Contradictory or changed circumstances receive counsellor review; OTT2 refreshes assessments.","removed_work":["Repeated manual registry synthesis"],"outcomes":[{"metric":"Prediction accuracy","baseline":"Manual, laborious risk assessment","result":"OTT1 achieved over 95% prediction accuracy; OTT2 above 98% remains a 2026 pilot target","period":"OTT1 operational since 2020","scale":"More than 100,000 client records","attribution_caveat":"OTT2 98% is prospective and is not counted as achieved.","evidence_label":"reported"}],"executive_lesson":"Separate realized OTT1 evidence from OTT2 pilot expectations.","anti_pattern":"Do not publish forecast OTT2 accuracy as achieved.","questions_for_leaders":["Where is the operating threshold set and who can override it?","What measured result would trigger rollback or retraining?","Which residual decisions must remain human-owned?"],"collections":[],"bundle_version":"1.0.0","bundle_fingerprint":"sha256:c23c6cc2b88153d008ea8fda928f632ce0011fc2d4c5036672a16e5d895bab93","canonical_url":"https://brianletort.ai/transformations/estonia-ott-employment-triage"}