{"stable_id":"4ab7ea0afa00d969","slug":"fdny-firecast-risk-inspections","company":"New York City Fire Department","workflow_name":"FireCast risk-ranked inspection lists through RBIS","function_code":"engineering","pattern_codes":["exception_based_operations","queue_elimination","continuous_decisioning"],"changed_assumption":"Fire companies can prioritize inspections by predicted risk instead of fixed cycles and local knowledge.","evidence_strength":"mixed","publication_tier":"showcase","freshness":"current","reviewed_at":"2026-08-23","updated_at":"2026-08-22","source_quality_summary":"2 independent, 1 primary; publication outcomes are verified and reported.","caveat_summary":"Contemporary independent report quoting FDNY results; more violations found is a targeting metric, not proof that fires were prevented.","freshness_caveat":null,"workflow_summary":{"before":[{"actor":"Fire officers","action":"Select and schedule inspectable buildings from policy requirements and local information.","actor_type":"control"},{"actor":"Firefighters and inspectors","action":"Inspect assigned premises and record hazards.","actor_type":"control"}],"hinge":"Fire companies can prioritize inspections by predicted risk instead of fixed cycles and local knowledge.","after":[{"actor":"FireCast","action":"Scores and ranks buildings from fire history, characteristics, violations, complaints, and other risk factors.","actor_type":"system"},{"actor":"Fire officers and field units","action":"Receive prioritized lists, inspect buildings, and issue or follow up violations.","actor_type":"system"}],"decision_mode":"shared","decision_marker":"AI handles the default; humans own exceptions"},"before":[{"order":1,"actor":"Fire officers","action":"Select and schedule inspectable buildings from policy requirements and local information.","handoff_to":"Field units","control":"Mandatory cycles and professional judgment"},{"order":2,"actor":"Firefighters and inspectors","action":"Inspect assigned premises and record hazards.","handoff_to":"Enforcement process","control":"Fire code"}],"after":[{"order":1,"actor":"FireCast","action":"Scores and ranks buildings from fire history, characteristics, violations, complaints, and other risk factors.","handoff_to":"Risk Based Inspection System","control":"Predictive risk ranking"},{"order":2,"actor":"Fire officers and field units","action":"Receive prioritized lists, inspect buildings, and issue or follow up violations.","handoff_to":"Building owners and enforcement","control":"Humans conduct inspections and enforcement"}],"decision_rights":"The model determines priority order; uniformed personnel decide findings and enforcement based on physical inspection.","exception_path":"Mandatory inspections, public complaints, and officer judgment can trigger work outside the risk-ranked list.","removed_work":["Manual aggregation of cross-agency building risk signals","Inspection capacity spent without citywide risk prioritization"],"outcomes":[{"metric":"Building violations found after FireCast 2.0 deployment","baseline":"Violation discovery rate before FireCast 2.0","result":"Average violations increased 19% in the first 30 days and remained 10% higher after 60 days","period":"First 60 days after FireCast 2.0 deployment","scale":"New York City risk-based building inspections","attribution_caveat":"Contemporary independent report quoting FDNY results; more violations found is a targeting metric, not proof that fires were prevented.","evidence_label":"reported"}],"executive_lesson":"The measurable first-order result is better inspection yield, not proven fire prevention; leaders should separate queue quality from ultimate safety outcomes.","anti_pattern":"Using risk rank as evidence of a code violation or claiming prevented fires from increased violation discovery.","questions_for_leaders":["What is the right first-order metric for a risk-ranked queue?","Which inspections must bypass model priority?"],"collections":["queue-eliminated","embodied-work"],"bundle_version":"1.0.0","bundle_fingerprint":"sha256:c23c6cc2b88153d008ea8fda928f632ce0011fc2d4c5036672a16e5d895bab93","canonical_url":"https://brianletort.ai/transformations/fdny-firecast-risk-inspections"}