---
title: 'New York City Fire Department: FireCast risk-ranked inspection lists through RBIS'
slug: fdny-firecast-risk-inspections
stable_id: 4ab7ea0afa00d969
company: New York City Fire Department
function_code: engineering
pattern_codes:
  - exception_based_operations
  - queue_elimination
  - continuous_decisioning
evidence_strength: mixed
publication_tier: showcase
freshness: current
reviewed_at: '2026-08-23'
updated_at: '2026-08-22'
source_quality_summary: 2 independent, 1 primary; publication outcomes are verified and reported.
caveat_summary: >-
  Contemporary independent report quoting FDNY results; more violations found is a
  targeting metric, not proof that fires were prevented.
collections:
  - queue-eliminated
  - embodied-work
bundle_version: 1.0.0
bundle_fingerprint: sha256:c23c6cc2b88153d008ea8fda928f632ce0011fc2d4c5036672a16e5d895bab93
canonical_url: https://brianletort.ai/transformations/fdny-firecast-risk-inspections
---

# New York City Fire Department: FireCast risk-ranked inspection lists through RBIS

Fire companies can prioritize inspections by predicted risk instead of fixed cycles and local knowledge.

Function: Engineering design. Patterns: Exception-based operations; Queue elimination; Continuous decisioning. Evidence: mixed.

Freshness: current. Reviewed: 2026-08-23. Updated: 2026-08-22.


Source quality: 2 independent, 1 primary; publication outcomes are verified and reported.

## Before

1. **Fire officers** — Select and schedule inspectable buildings from policy requirements and local information. (control: Mandatory cycles and professional judgment)
2. **Firefighters and inspectors** — Inspect assigned premises and record hazards. (control: Fire code)

## After

1. **FireCast** — Scores and ranks buildings from fire history, characteristics, violations, complaints, and other risk factors. (control: Predictive risk ranking)
2. **Fire officers and field units** — Receive prioritized lists, inspect buildings, and issue or follow up violations. (control: Humans conduct inspections and enforcement)

## Decision rights

The model determines priority order; uniformed personnel decide findings and enforcement based on physical inspection.

## Exception path

Mandatory inspections, public complaints, and officer judgment can trigger work outside the risk-ranked list.

## Outcomes

- **Building violations found after FireCast 2.0 deployment** (reported): Violation discovery rate before FireCast 2.0 → Average violations increased 19% in the first 30 days and remained 10% higher after 60 days. Contemporary independent report quoting FDNY results; more violations found is a targeting metric, not proof that fires were prevented.

## Executive lesson

The measurable first-order result is better inspection yield, not proven fire prevention; leaders should separate queue quality from ultimate safety outcomes.

## Anti-pattern

Using risk rank as evidence of a code violation or claiming prevented fires from increased violation discovery.

## Questions for leaders

- What is the right first-order metric for a risk-ranked queue?
- Which inspections must bypass model priority?

## Sources

- [The Analytics of Fire](https://urbanomnibus.net/2014/06/the-analytics-of-fire/) — Urban Omnibus / Architectural League of New York
- [In Pursuit of Smart (from NFPA Journal)](https://www.firefighterclosecalls.com/in-pursuit-of-smart-from-nfpa-journal/) — Firefighter Close Calls / NFPA Journal
- [Fire Department Indicator Definitions, Mayor's Management Report 2024](https://www.nyc.gov/assets/operations/downloads/pdf/mmr2024/fdny_idf.pdf) — City of New York