Disclosures · Radar · version 2026-09-07
Radar publication rules.
The Radar publishes multi-year theses on AI infrastructure and economics from public data only. It is commentary and a scored forecasting exercise, not investment, legal, or engineering advice. Theses about the author's employer, its named competitors, and its customer relationships are excluded. Named companies appear on observable fundamentals and financing events; any thesis that references a security price carries the market-call notice below.
Who this is for
Operators, allocators, and anyone building in AI.
Employer sign-off
Written approval from the employer, printed verbatim when on file. Gated arenas render only when named here.
Not on file. The employer has reviewed the author’s public research; a written approval covering the Radar’s gated arenas has been requested and will be printed here when received. Until then those arenas are written and registered in the chain but not rendered.
Arenas
A gated arena is written and priced offline but not rendered until the sign-off above names it in scope. Gated theses are still registered in the chain so the publication date cannot be backdated.
| Arena | Gate | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Compute supply and custom silicon | open | publishing |
| Power and sites | requires sign-off | registered, not rendered |
| Networking fabric | open | publishing |
| Model frontier and open weights | open | publishing |
| AGI and capabilities | open | publishing |
| Enterprise absorption | open | publishing |
| Consumer and commercial use | open | publishing |
| Capital and credit | open | publishing |
| Geopolitics and policy | open | publishing |
Embargoed topics
Regardless of sign-off, the Radar never prices these.
- Digital Realty occupancy, rents, bookings, backlog, renewal spreads, or named campuses
- Any named colocation or hyperscale landlord's contracted MW or named customer win
- Digital Realty metro-level pricing or supply-demand commentary
- DLR or DXM securities
Blackout windows
No repricing, registration, or resolution is published inside a window. Registrations queue and carry their real timestamp.
| Start | End | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-31 | Employer Q3 2026 earnings quiet period (approximate; confirm dates) |
| 2027-01-01 | 2027-02-20 | Employer Q4 2026 earnings quiet period (approximate; confirm dates) |
Market-call notice
This thesis references a security or index price. It is a scored forecast published for accountability, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. The author holds employer equity and may hold positions in named companies through diversified funds.
Consensus rule
Every thesis is measured against a consensus reference. Where a market or survey quotes a probability, that number is used. Where the consensus is a forecast in other units (a growth rate, a dollar figure, a roadmap date), the thesis states the probability that consensus implies for the exact statement and shows the derivation; cards label it "implied". Both the reference and the derivation are frozen in the chain at registration.
Scoreboard rule
The Radar keeps its own scoreboard. It publishes no aggregate Brier score until 30 tier-1 or tier-2 items have resolved, and it never averages with the Ledger.
Resolution-source denylist
Paywalled analyst houses. A thesis may cite them as an input; it may not resolve against them.
semianalysis.com · delloro.com · 650group.com · trendforce.com · lightcounting.com · crehanresearch.com · idc.com · counterpointresearch.com · preqin.com · gartner.com · theinformation.com · bloomberg.com/professional