46% · live — No publicly listed global colocation operator reports Q3 2026 interconnection re

Probability history

Called at 46% on August 1, 2026. Not yet repriced. 27 days to deadline.

How the number was built

Final method: stacked-fixed-weights (resolved n=74 < 80). Each rung is an independent estimate; the final is a stacked combination.

Stated (issue date)46%

Reference class (n=37)46%

Recalibrated50%

Feature model18%

Council57%

Final46%

Drivers

Reference class qtype:disclosure runs 0.46 (n=37) vs stated 0.46.
Hierarchical calibration moves stated 0.46 to 0.50 (lens networking, kappa_stated=80.0, kappa_lens=200.0).
Feature model at 0.18: conjuncts=1, named disclosure=True, horizon=106d.
Council of 3 at 0.57 with dissent.

Cautions

semiconductor-supply-chain-analyst vote dropped: recusal pattern [digital_realty]
geopolitics-regulation-analyst vote dropped: recusal pattern [digital_realty]
all 3 votes came from one vendor (openai); extremization disabled, persona diversity only

Council

3 personas on one model (openai/gpt-5.6-sol); other vendors were unavailable this run, so read this as one model's persona-averaged view, aggregated by log odds mean without extremization. Dissent: capital-markets-credit-analyst at 0.68 vs superforecaster-statistician at 0.39: Interconnection revenue is predominantly recurring, with price escalators and incremental cross-connect additions, so sequential declines are uncommon. / I use the networking ledger base rate of 0.346, cross-checked against 0.404 for long-horizon questions and 0.461 for disclosures.

62%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Interconnection revenue is predominantly recurring, and Q3 has one more billing day than Q2, making sequential growth the base case for major disclosed platforms. EQIX’s 23% year-over-year RPO growth and 8% trailing revenue growth are directionally supportive, though not interconnection-specific. The universal wording lowers confidence: multiple listed operators may qualify, reported-currency effects can produce small declines, and “interconnect/revenue” leaves room for a broader revenue metric under the adverse ambiguity rule. Most relevant Q3 filings should arrive before November 15.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

68%

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Interconnection revenue is predominantly recurring, with price escalators and incremental cross-connect additions, so sequential declines are uncommon. Equinix’s disclosed RPO growth of 23% and trailing revenue growth of 8% support continued demand, though they do not guarantee Q3 sequential growth. The principal risks are churn, foreign-exchange translation, customer consolidation, or a broadly construed operator/metric under the adverse ambiguity rule. Because several issuers may qualify, the no-decline condition is somewhat harder than forecasting one company, but still more likely than not.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1101239&owner=exclude https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1297996&owner=exclude

39%

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the networking ledger base rate of 0.346, cross-checked against 0.404 for long-horizon questions and 0.461 for disclosures. Equinix’s reported 8% trailing revenue growth and 23% RPO growth modestly improve the outlook because interconnection revenue is generally recurring. But this is effectively a multi-operator universal claim: one sequential decline causes failure. The broad, undefined “global colocation operator” universe and resolves-against-forecaster policy add material risk, as does the Nov. 15 reporting deadline. The forecaster’s 0.4–0.5 calibration bin is positive but has only two observations, so I give it little weight.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

Evidence the engine used

direct · undated

SEC.gov | EDGAR Full Text Search

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: Interconnection revenue is predominantly recurring, and Q3 has one more billing day than Q2, making sequential growth the base case for major disclosed platforms. EQIX’s 23% year-over-year RPO growth and 8% trailing revenue growth are directionally supportive, thou

direct · undated

EDGAR Entity Landing Page

Cited by capital-markets-credit-analyst: Interconnection revenue is predominantly recurring, with price escalators and incremental cross-connect additions, so sequential declines are uncommon. Equinix’s disclosed RPO growth of 23% and trailing revenue growth of 8% support continued demand, though th

direct · undated

EDGAR Entity Landing Page