35%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

This requires a specific publisher, benchmark version, multi-turn result, and model codename within 12 days; related benchmark coverage would not count. The supplied digest provides no evidence of an announced test, scheduled publication, or completed Jalapeño evaluation. Benchmark articles can publish quickly, but access, repeated runs, analysis, and editorial timing create meaningful delay risk. With most of the original forecast window elapsed and ambiguity resolving against a hit, I discount the forecaster’s earlier 0.36 substantially.

https://semianalysis.com/

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only 12 days remain, and resolution requires a specific SemiAnalysis AgentX v3 publication naming Jalapeño; adjacent benchmarks or product announcements do not count. The supplied evidence contains no benchmark-specific trigger, release schedule, or indication that Jalapeño is already available for testing. Such results also depend on access, completed runs, validation, and editorial publication. End-of-month batching keeps the chance meaningful, but the narrow source-and-benchmark requirement and ambiguity policy make a miss more likely than the broad hardware reference rates suggest.

https://semianalysis.com/

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The event requires an exact combination: SemiAnalysis must publish AgentX v3 results, the results must include OpenAI Jalapeño, and publication must occur within 12 days. No supplied evidence indicates a scheduled release, completed evaluation, or model access. Benchmark publication timing is irregular, and ambiguity resolves against inclusion. Hardware-sector growth and the forecaster’s broad hardware base rate provide little information about this editorial/testing deadline. The original 0.36 forecast should therefore decline materially as most of the forecast window has elapsed without qualifying results.

https://semianalysis.com/

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Base rate: 0.50 for timing questions in the ledger. I adjust downward because resolution requires one specific publisher, the exact AgentX v3 benchmark, inclusion of one named model, and publication within only 12 days; related benchmarks or later publication fail. The digest provides no verifiable evidence of an announced test, completed run, or scheduled release. Although formally single-leg, this embeds a short chain of testing and editorial dependencies. The hardware base rate is less relevant than the timing class. Calibration data are sparse below 0.50 and do not justify following the prior 0.36.

https://semianalysis.com/

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only 12 days remain, and the resolution requires the exact AgentX v3 multi-turn table to include Jalapeño; announcements, other benchmarks, or later testing fail. Benchmark publication depends on both model access and SemiAnalysis completing and publishing the specified evaluation. With no supplied evidence that results are already imminent, the short remaining window and ambiguity-against rule outweigh the hardware-ledger base rate. This is below the forecaster’s August estimate because most of the original window has elapsed.

https://semianalysis.com/

direct · undated

SemiAnalysis | AI and Semiconductor Research, Models, Advisory

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: This requires a specific publisher, benchmark version, multi-turn result, and model codename within 12 days; related benchmark coverage would not count. The supplied digest provides no evidence of an announced test, scheduled publication, or completed Jalapeño eval