37%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Google’s established relationship with Fervo and demand for firm clean power make an expansion plausible, and acceptance need not await commercial operation. However, ≥500 MW is a large, specific threshold with only 254 days remaining. The rule requires affirmative acceptance in a primary disclosure; an option, conditional MOU, negotiation, or smaller tranche fails. Capital-intensive geothermal expansion also depends on drilling validation, financing, transmission, and procurement, while elevated rates and historically long interconnection timelines favor staged commitments rather than rapid acceptance of the full amount.

https://blog.google/https://fervoenergy.com/

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Google’s load growth supports demand for firm carbon-free power, and a large Google commitment could unlock Fervo financing. However, ≥500 MW is a step-change likely requiring resource confirmation, interconnection, transmission, and project financing. Only 254 days remain, while the rule requires both actual acceptance and primary disclosure; an option, conditional MOU, or undisclosed agreement misses. Elevated rates and long interconnection timelines add execution risk. This is modestly below the forecaster’s 0.41.

https://fervoenergy.com/https://blog.google/

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Google’s existing relationship with Fervo and rising demand for firm clean power make an expansion credible. However, 500 MW is a large commercial commitment, and the rule requires actual acceptance—not an option, conditional MOU, or development announcement—plus primary disclosure within 254 days. Pricing, resource validation, delivery milestones, transmission, and financing diligence can delay definitive acceptance. Long interconnection timelines matter less because COD is not required, but they still complicate contracting. The noisy power-lens base rate is outweighed by the more relevant disclosure, long-horizon, and multi-leg rates near 0.40–0.46. I am slightly below the forecaster’s 0.41.

https://fervoenergy.com/https://blog.google/

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the 0.433 multi-leg base rate, rather than the 0.786 power rate because that sample has only six cases. I adjust down for the unusually large 500 MW threshold, the requirement that Google actually accept rather than merely sign a conditional MOU, and the separate requirement for primary disclosure within 254 days. Queue data show long development timelines and high withdrawal rates; these do not preclude an offtake agreement but make a large near-term commitment less routine. Higher Treasury yields also hinder project financing. The forecaster’s 0.4–0.5 calibration bin has only two observations, too few to justify its apparent optimism.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10https://www.fervoenergy.com/https://blog.google/

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The >90-day, disclosure, and multi-leg ledger classes suggest a prior near 0.40–0.46; the stronger power-lens rate has only six observations. Google and Fervo’s existing commercial relationship supports expansion, but 500 MW is a large incremental commitment. The rule requires actual acceptance plus primary disclosure, so another framework, option, or conditional MOU would miss. Only 254 days remain, while elevated rates and weak lower-grade credit conditions make financing and milestone clearance harder. Interconnection timelines also remain long, although acceptance could precede commercial operation. These constraints put the probability below the forecaster’s 0.41.

https://fervoenergy.com/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10

direct · undated

News from Google | Google Product and Technology News and Stories

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: Google’s established relationship with Fervo and demand for firm clean power make an expansion plausible, and acceptance need not await commercial operation. However, ≥500 MW is a large, specific threshold with only 254 days remaining. The rule requires affirmative

direct · undated

Fervo Energy - Next-Generation Geothermal Projects

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: Google’s established relationship with Fervo and demand for firm clean power make an expansion plausible, and acceptance need not await commercial operation. However, ≥500 MW is a large, specific threshold with only 254 days remaining. The rule requires affirmative

direct · undated

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Cited by superforecaster-statistician: I use the 0.433 multi-leg base rate, rather than the 0.786 power rate because that sample has only six cases. I adjust down for the unusually large 500 MW threshold, the requirement that Google actually accept rather than merely sign a conditional MOU, and the

direct · undated

Fervo Energy - Next-Generation Geothermal Projects

Cited by superforecaster-statistician: I use the 0.433 multi-leg base rate, rather than the 0.786 power rate because that sample has only six cases. I adjust down for the unusually large 500 MW threshold, the requirement that Google actually accept rather than merely sign a conditional MOU, and the