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brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · partial · hardware

55% · partial

Samsung HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA Vera Rubin drop by more than 25% in May vs April due to the May 21-June 7 walkout, with at least one downstream hyperscaler publicly delaying a Q3 capacity ramp.

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W20

Outcome

partialcalled at 55%brier contribution 0.003timing-slip

Samsung-union tentative agreement May 20 averted the 18-day walkout; ratification vote May 27-28. HBM4 shipments likely NOT to drop >25%; this prediction is on track to MISS. Confidence revised down. Score moves to miss if the ratification passes; score moves to hit only if the ratification fails and the strike actually proceeds.