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brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · miss · software

60% · miss

Gemini 3.5 Pro launches by July 15, 2026, scoring AA Intelligence Index greater than or equal to 60, taking the closed-frontier intelligence lead from GPT-5.5 (currently 60.2).

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W21Evidence ↗

Outcome

misscalled at 60%resolved July 18, 2026brier contribution 0.360timing-slip

Gemini 3.5 Pro had not launched by July 15 — it missed the leaked July 17 target too, its third slip, with Bloomberg reporting July 16 the model was months behind schedule — so the AA Index >= 60 leg was never tested.

Evidence: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/google-gemini-launch-delayed-as-tech-falls-short-of-internal-goals