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brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · miss · software

60% · miss

Gemini 3.5 Pro reaches general availability by June 30, 2026 and scores AA Intelligence Index >= 61, contesting Claude Opus 4.8's fresh lead.

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W22Evidence ↗

Outcome

misscalled at 60%resolved July 18, 2026brier contribution 0.360conjunctive

GA premise failed: Gemini 3.5 Pro had not reached general availability by June 30 (third slip; Bloomberg reported July 16 it was months behind schedule on coding quality), so the AA Intelligence Index >= 61 leg was never tested.

Evidence: https://www.searchenginejournal.com/gemini-3-5-pro-delayed-over-coding-bloomberg-reports/582660/