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AI Market · Forecast desk · partial · hardware

75% · partial

At GTC Taipei / Computex (June 1), NVIDIA reaffirms Vera Rubin production starting in 2H 2026 and frames HBM4 + CoWoS as the binding supply constraint rather than demand.

Outcome

partialcalled at 75%resolved July 18, 2026brier contribution 0.063conjunctive

Timing leg hit: Huang used the June 1 Computex keynote to declare Vera Rubin in full production with customer shipments in Q3 2026. Framing leg missed: he called compute demand 'the constraint' and (June 5) confirmed all three HBM4 suppliers qualified and in production — supply framed as ramping cleanly, not as the binding constraint.

Evidence: https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/data-center-chips/nvidia-says-vera-rubin-vera-cpu-on-track-launches-dsx-os-to-run-ai-factories