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brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · miss · software

58% · miss

An MIT- or Apache-licensed open-weight model (e.g., GLM-5.2) enters the overall top 5 of the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.1 — not just the open-weight subset — by August 31, 2026.

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W25Evidence ↗

Outcome

misscalled at 58%resolved September 1, 2026brier contribution 0.336timing-slip

AA Intelligence Index v4.1.1's overall top five through Aug 31 were all Anthropic closed variants (Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 scores 62–66); the highest MIT/Apache-licensed open-weight model, Kimi K3 at 60, sat outside the overall top five, and GLM-5.3 uses a bespoke license rather than MIT/Apache.

Evidence: https://artificialanalysis.ai/models