36%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The deadline has passed, and the supplied digest contains no Groq or customer primary disclosure naming a qualifying customer. The rule is stricter than evidence of demand: partnerships, funding, capacity commitments, or unnamed enterprise logos miss. Strong AI infrastructure spending supports commercialization, but customer publicity rights remain a substantial hurdle, especially for hyperscalers with internal inference stacks. Relevant >90-day and disclosure base rates are only 0.404 and 0.461, while the forecaster’s 0.50–0.59 band realized 0.375. The narrow named-customer condition warrants a further discount, though the digest is not an exhaustive newsroom search.

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The deadline has passed, and the supplied record contains no qualifying primary disclosure. Groq could have enterprise adoption without satisfying the strict naming requirement: large users often prohibit vendor publicity, while partnerships, investors, channel providers, and unnamed logos do not count. Hyperscalers also have strong incentives to favor internal accelerators or established suppliers. Rapid AI infrastructure spending supports some chance that Groq named a Fortune 500 deployment, but this forecaster’s comparable 0.50–0.59 calls realized only 0.375, and disclosure questions have a 0.461 base rate before applying the unusually restrictive customer criterion.

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The deadline has passed, and the supplied record contains no qualifying Groq or customer primary disclosure. The rule is stricter than announcing a partnership, deployment, investor, reseller, or unnamed enterprise adoption: the named entity must be a Fortune 500 company or hyperscaler and an inference-cloud customer. Customer confidentiality and category ambiguity make such disclosures uncommon. The forecaster’s comparable 0.50–0.59 calls realized at 0.30, while disclosure and >90-day reference classes were below 0.50. A primary announcement could exist outside the digest, so the probability remains material but well below the original 0.57.

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the disclosure-question base rate of 0.461, cross-checked against 0.404 for >90-day horizons. The forecaster’s 0.50–0.59 calls realized only 0.300, indicating substantial overconfidence. This resolution additionally requires a named, qualifying large customer and a primary disclosure by a hard deadline; commercial progress or unnamed logos do not count. The deadline has passed, and the supplied digest contains no qualifying disclosure. Because the digest is not a comprehensive news archive, that absence is only moderately informative, but ambiguity resolves against the forecast.

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The deadline passed 19 days ago, so this is now uncertainty about an existing public record rather than a forward forecast. The supplied digest contains no qualifying Groq or customer primary disclosure. The rule is strict: partnerships, suppliers, investors, unnamed enterprise users, or non-customer cloud integrations miss unless a Fortune 500 company or hyperscaler is named specifically as an inference-cloud customer. Disclosure questions and the forecaster’s 0.50–0.59 band historically resolved below the stated 0.57, while customer confidentiality further limits named announcements. A hit remains possible because the digest is not a comprehensive press-release archive.