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brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · miss · hardware

55% · miss

Custom silicon (TPU + Trainium + Maia + MTIA + Granite Rapids AI) reaches 35% of incremental AI compute share, up from ~30% today.

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W17Evidence ↗

Outcome

misscalled at 55%resolved August 1, 2026brier contribution 0.303threshold-miss

No TrendForce / SemiAnalysis quarterly mix breakdown showed custom silicon at 35% of incremental AI compute share by Jul 31. The best public TrendForce figure kept ASIC-based AI servers at a projected 27.8% of 2026 shipments (GPUs 69.7%) — ~7pp short even on stock share, with no verified incremental-share print crossing 35%.

Evidence: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260120-12887.html