41% · live — Meta contributes MetaRoCE specification through OCP at the October 2026 Global S

Probability history

Called at 44% on August 29, 2026. Repriced 1 time; now 41%. 55 days to deadline.

How the number was built

Final method: stacked-fixed-weights (resolved n=57 < 80). Each rung is an independent estimate; the final is a stacked combination.

Stated (issue date)44%

Reference class (n=43)57%

Recalibrated52%

Feature model33%

Council38%

Final41%

Drivers

Reference class conjunctive:single-leg runs 0.57 (n=43) vs stated 0.44.
Hierarchical calibration moves stated 0.44 to 0.52 (lens networking, kappa_stated=24.0, kappa_lens=200.0).
Feature model at 0.33: conjuncts=1, named disclosure=False, horizon=63d.
Council of 5 at 0.38.

Cautions

all 5 votes came from one vendor (openai); extremization disabled, persona diversity only

Council

5 personas on one model (openai/gpt-5.6-sol); other vendors were unavailable this run, so read this as one model's persona-averaged view, aggregated by log odds mean without extremization.

39%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Meta’s foundational OCP role and history of contributing open networking designs make the Global Summit a plausible venue for a RoCE specification. However, the resolution requires an identifiable MetaRoCE contribution through OCP, not merely a presentation, general RoCE discussion, or GitHub release. No summit agenda, OCP project record, or Meta engineering post in the supplied evidence confirms that path. With only 55 days remaining and ambiguity resolving against the forecast, the networking reference-class rate deserves substantial weight.

https://www.opencompute.org/https://engineering.fb.com/

40%

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Meta’s long-standing OCP involvement and incentive to standardize AI-cluster Ethernet make a RoCE-profile contribution plausible. However, the resolution requires a specifically named MetaRoCE contribution at the October summit, documented in OCP materials or a Meta engineering post pointing to OCP. No supplied evidence shows an accepted specification, agenda slot, or public preview. Conference talks, generic RoCE material, or a standalone GitHub release would miss. The networking ledger’s 0.318 base rate and strict ambiguity policy support a modest discount from the forecaster’s 0.44.

https://www.opencompute.org/https://engineering.fb.com/

38%

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Meta’s longstanding OCP participation and the summit’s relevance to AI-networking standards make a contribution plausible. However, the claim requires the specifically named MetaRoCE specification to be formally associated with OCP at the October summit, not merely discussed or published on GitHub. With only 55 days remaining, a summit-ready specification likely already needs working-group coordination and scheduled materials; none is identified in the supplied evidence. The networking reference-class rate of 0.318 and the against-forecaster ambiguity rule support an estimate below the stated 0.44.

https://www.opencompute.org/https://engineering.fb.com/

31%

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Base rate: 0.318 for the forecaster’s networking questions (n=10). Meta’s longstanding OCP participation and the Global Summit’s relevance make the venue plausible, but no digest evidence specifically supports a MetaRoCE contribution. Resolution requires the named specification to be contributed through OCP at the October summit; an adjacent announcement, later contribution, or standalone GitHub release fails, and ambiguity resolves against the forecast. The 31–90-day rate is higher, but it is less specific than the networking class. Calibration offers no reliable uplift: the 0.4–0.5 bin has only one resolved case, while the broader record shows some overconfidence.

https://www.opencompute.org/https://engineering.fb.com/

41%

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Meta is a longstanding OCP contributor, and Global Summit timing is a natural venue for publishing AI-networking specifications. RoCE scaling is strategically relevant, making a Meta-authored contribution plausible. However, the resolution requires the specifically named MetaRoCE specification to be contributed through OCP by October 31—not merely presented, discussed, or released on GitHub. Networking questions in the ledger have a low 0.318 base rate, and the exact document-and-venue requirement creates substantial miss risk. Alternative publication through another consortium or a delayed formal contribution would not count.

https://www.opencompute.org/https://engineering.fb.com/

Evidence the engine used

direct · undated

Home » Open Compute Project

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: Meta’s foundational OCP role and history of contributing open networking designs make the Global Summit a plausible venue for a RoCE specification. However, the resolution requires an identifiable MetaRoCE contribution through OCP, not merely a presentation, genera

direct · undated

Engineering at Meta - Engineering at Meta Blog