Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 21 · Week 37 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek | UnknownPrior Unknown · Flat | UnknownPrior Unknown · Flat | n/a | No financing or annual revenue disclosure from any constituent landed in the window, so no category point estimate is reproducible. What moved was delivery terms rather than capital: pricing structure, endpoint routing, and data-residency limits. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | Unknown as a category total; two constituents disclosed $28.5B of quarterly capital expenditure and an announced plan of at least EUR 13B over two years respectivelyPrior Unknown · Flat | Unknown as a category total; one constituent disclosed triple-digit cloud infrastructure revenue growth and $664B of contracted backlogPrior Unknown · Flat | n/a | The only category with hard in-window primary disclosure, and the disclosure cuts both ways: 850 MW of capacity and more than 300,000 accelerators delivered against $28.5B of quarterly capital expenditure and roughly $5B of negative free cash flow. Both direction arrows are held flat because the category total and its prior are both Unknown, and a single company's quarter is not a category series. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC | Unknown as a category total; in-window instruments comprise an up-to-$3.1B undrawn facility, A$1.1B of subordinated convertible notes, and $375M firm of an $875M headlinePrior Unknown · Flat | UnknownPrior Unknown · Flat | n/a | Every financing instrument in the category this week is structurally conditional. Nothing announced here is drawn, firm, or unconditioned in full, which is the pattern rather than an accident. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment | UnknownPrior Unknown · Flat | IndirectPrior Indirect · Flat | n/a | The deployment floor fell measurably while the capital signal stayed unquantified. No government-funded national compute programme in the window meets this issue's ledger method, so no point estimate is published. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek
- Capital in
- Unknownvs Unknown · Flat
- Revenue out
- Unknownvs Unknown · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The week's frontier-lab news was commercial rather than financial. OpenAI put a full-duplex voice layer into general availability at a published per-minute rate and delegated reasoning to a separately billed text model, and rented out its agent harness as a managed service documented as US-residency-only with no zero data retention. DeepSeek published an MIT-licensed checkpoint and announced that its existing flagship endpoint would begin serving a different, smaller model. Anthropic disclosed a coverage failure in its own agentic transcript scan. None of that establishes a capital or revenue total, and prior rolling estimates are not reproduced because this issue's artifact set contains no constituent list, valuation date, or formula inputs.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10 | OpenAI makes GPT-Live-1 generally available and splits voice and reasoning onto two meters | Not disclosed | OpenAI |
| Sep 10 | OpenAI offers the Codex agent loop as a managed Agents API, without zero data retention | Not disclosed | OpenAI |
| Sep 10 | DeepSeek publishes MIT-licensed V4.1-Flash and reroutes its flagship endpoint to a smaller model | Not disclosed | DeepSeek (model card) |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, n/a, n/a
- Revenue out
- $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, n/a, n/a
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- Unknown as a category total; two constituents disclosed $28.5B of quarterly capital expenditure and an announced plan of at least EUR 13B over two years respectivelyvs Unknown · Flat
- Revenue out
- Unknown as a category total; one constituent disclosed triple-digit cloud infrastructure revenue growth and $664B of contracted backlogvs Unknown · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Oracle's Q1 FY27 filing is the week's reference point because it separates delivered capacity from contracted capacity, which nobody else did. Backlog reached $664B, up $209B year over year and $26B sequentially, with management stating the new contracts are structured so that customers prepay or bring their own hardware and require no incremental Oracle capital, and expecting roughly half of the backlog to convert over 36 months as guidance rather than commitment. Google separately announced an at-least-EUR-13B Finnish investment plan for 2027 and 2028 alongside a twenty-two year power purchase agreement for up to half of an existing nuclear plant's output; the house measurement in this issue takes that transaction apart. Neither figure is a category total and neither vendor disclosed AI-segment operating margin.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10 | Oracle reports 850 MW and 300,000+ accelerators delivered, $28.5B quarterly capex, ~$5B negative free cash flow | $28.5B capex | Oracle (Q1 FY27 earnings release) |
| Sep 10 | Oracle discloses $664B of remaining performance obligations, up $209B year over year | $664B backlog | Oracle Form 8-K |
| Sep 9 | Google announces an at-least-EUR-13B Finnish plan and a 22-year nuclear power purchase agreement | At least EUR 13B |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $230B, $250B, $250B, $250B, $250B, $250B, n/a, n/a
- Revenue out
- $62B, $70B, $70B, $70B, $70B, $70B, n/a, n/a
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC
- Capital in
- Unknown as a category total; in-window instruments comprise an up-to-$3.1B undrawn facility, A$1.1B of subordinated convertible notes, and $375M firm of an $875M headlinevs Unknown · Flat
- Revenue out
- Unknownvs Unknown · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
A two-month-old Indonesian platform signed an up-to-$3.1B underwritten term loan that is undrawn and collateralised against hardware whose delivery depends on export licences that have not been granted. NEXTDC priced A$1.1B of subordinated convertible notes whose effective maturity is set by a 2029 investor put rather than by the stated term, with capped calls attached, meaning the issuer bought an option that limits how much dilution a conversion can cause. Positron AI's $875M headline is $375M firm plus up to $500M contingent. And a $1.11B monthly hosting rate annualises to roughly $13.3B, which is our arithmetic and not the discloser's: the executive stated no contract term, named no counterparty and disclosed no megawatts, so there is nothing in the public record against which to test an annualisation the company never made. Read together, the category is raising optionality rather than capital, which is prudent for the borrower and unpriceable from the public record for anyone underwriting the counterparty.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 | Zankore signs an up-to-$3.1B underwritten term loan, undrawn, with export-licence-contingent collateral | Up to $3.1B | Zankore |
| Sep 10 | NEXTDC prices A$1.1B of subordinated convertible notes with a 2029 investor put | A$1.1B | NEXTDC ASX release (launch) |
| Sep 10 | Positron AI raises $875M headline, of which $375M is firm and up to $500M contingent | $375M firm | Positron AI |
| Sep 10 | SpaceX discloses a $1.11B monthly hosting rate with no term, counterparty or megawatts; the roughly $13.3B annualisation is this issue's arithmetic | $1.11B per month | Business Insider |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $17B, $17B, $17B, $19.6B, $24.6B, $25.5B, n/a, n/a
- Revenue out
- $5B, $5B, $5B, $8B, $8B, $8B, n/a, n/a
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment
- Capital in
- Unknownvs Unknown · Flat
- Revenue out
- Indirectvs Indirect · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Two software events did more for on-premises economics than any financing announcement. A serving project published a cache-residency policy that fits a full million-token context onto a single node, which removes a multi-node requirement from long-context work, and two open-weight checkpoints were published, though the 1.6-trillion-parameter agentic model among them is reported as post-trained from the other lab's base rather than as an independent second lineage. NVIDIA's up-to-two-gigawatt Australian target is an aggregation of eight independent operators' pipelines rather than a government programme or a purchase, so it does not enter the sovereign ledger. The honest gap in this category is that nothing in the window attributes a sovereign or enterprise on-premises purchase to open-weight availability, which is the demand-routing mechanism the framework's fourth hypothesis actually claims.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 | NVIDIA aggregates eight Australian operators into an up-to-2-gigawatt buildout target | Up to 2 GW | NVIDIA Newsroom |
| Sep 8 | vLLM fits a full million-token context onto a single node via a cache-residency policy | Not disclosed | vLLM |
| Sep 8 | Nex-AGI publishes a three-tier agentic family including a 1.6T open-weight checkpoint | Not disclosed | Nex-AGI (model card) |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $101B, $101B, $101B, $103B, $103B, $103B, n/a, n/a
- Revenue out
- $36B, $36B, $36B, $38B, $38B, $38B, n/a, n/a