Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 28 · Week 44 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek | ~$40B committed as lease finance, not equity, and not yet funded: SpaceX's binding commitment letter (8-K, October 26) for a master finance lease with an Apollo-managed lessor covering ~$40B of aggregate principal payments for its SI (Super Intelligence, the former xAI) segment, closing expected before year-end with schedules starting in H1 2027; the methodology charts committed capital visible in filings, and the house measurement carries the structure. No closed lab equity. Anthropic's S-1 is public (up to $100B targeted, pricing the week of November 16, ~$1.5T valuation talk; Reuters and IFR) and is carried in text until it prices. OpenAI's round is reported cut to ~$20B at $1.25T (FT) with ~$11B committed (WSJ); grade 3; text only. The $63B Broadcom XPU SPV for Anthropic is lender and vendor capital whose cash goes to Broadcom, not to the lab, and is carried in the narrativePrior What W43 reported as a tranche-priced ~$40B GPU SPV for SpaceX's SI segment arrived this week as a master finance lease commitment; the instrument changed, the size did not. No closed lab equity last week. OpenAI was reported finalising up to $30B at a $1.25T pre-money valuation led by UAE investors and Coatue, trimmed from $1.4T (CNBC, Bloomberg; grade 3; carried in text, not charted). Bloomberg had the SpaceX vehicle's $25-30B subordinated tranche, previously mid-8%, under renegotiation; Semafor (outside the graded packet) had ~8.3% subordinated against ~7.75% chip-backed. Anthropic's public S-1 slipped past October 23 with the roadshow still the week of November 9. The lab layer's other capital object is the SpaceX SI segment (the former xAI, reported as a SpaceX segment since the merger) · Up | ~$67B annualised, unchanged: Anthropic's filed S-1 confirms Q2 2026 revenue of $11.6B with $1.0B of operating income (8% margin) and leaves Q3 blank, while Reuters reports Q3 told to investors at $16.8B (+45% quarter on quarter), so the run-rate series stands. Consumption billing is 80% of H1 revenue (The Application Layer carries the customer metrics). SpaceX's SI segment (~$30B annualised in Q3, W43) remains in text because the series is Anthropic'sPrior Anthropic's updated draft S-1 (WSJ, Reuters; a reviewed document, not a filing; grade 4) shows H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B, which reconciles exactly to the $4.7B and $11.6B quarters reported second-hand in prior weeks, so the Q3 $16.8B and the ~$67B annualised chart value stand unchanged. The first filed frontier-lab segment line arrived from a different lab: SpaceX's SI segment at $7.56B for Q3 (+195% QoQ, $431M operating income, $4.95B adjusted EBITDA), about $30B annualised; it is carried in text because the series is Anthropic's run-rate · Flat | n/a (cross-entity: the lease capital is SpaceX's and the run-rate series is Anthropic's; see narrative) | Up on capital in: the first ~$40B of lab-layer compute finance committed in the series as a lease rather than equity or debt; signed, not yet funded |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$38B closed: Meta's $37.5B raise, $25B of Class A common sold at $625 through forward-sale agreements (settlement by November 19, 2027) and $12.5B of 6.50% mandatory convertible preferred, both closed October 29, inside a ~$97.5B program that includes a $60B at-the-market facility; NVIDIA's $3B and AMD's $1B equity purchases were announced alongside at the public price. Microsoft's $25B senior-note sale (first US bond since 2017; more than $100B of orders; Treasuries +45 to +95 bp) is carried from the counterbrief, outside the graded packet, and is not charted. Oracle capped its remaining raising at $20B ($10B equity, $10B debt) through FY30 and is carried in the narrativePrior No category financing. Meta's Class C non-voting stock (effective January 19, 2027, distributed 1-for-1) is a capital-raising currency, not capital raised, and is carried in text; Meta's Q3 capex was $34.9B with 2026 narrowed to $135-145B and free cash flow of -$2.12B. Amazon is funding AEP / X-energy's 960 MW Xe-100 SMR feasibility work in Indiana with milestone-based development capital and intended offtake, no FID or amount disclosed. Tesla (an on-prem builder, below) cut capex and left $30B of bank facilities undrawn · Up | Indirect; no AI-segment revenue line. The nearest lines moved up together: Google Cloud $30.7B (+103%, 36.2% margin, backlog $561B), Azure +48% (RPO $677B, +73%; OpenAI 11% of Microsoft revenue), AWS $46.0B (+39%, backlog $578B). Microsoft dropped its Copilot paid-seat disclosure for usage metrics (The Application Layer)Prior No AI-segment revenue disclosure from a hyperscaler. Anthropic's Claude Platform reached GA on Google Cloud as an Anthropic-operated deployment billed through Marketplace commitments, a distribution statement without a revenue line; Google Cloud's A5X Rubin instances reach GA in November with a first named customer. Meta's Q3 revenue of $64.6B (+26%) is not an AI line · Up | n/a (no AI revenue line; cloud segments are not AI-attributable) | Up on capital in: Meta's $37.5B is the largest single-week hyperscaler equity raise in the series, and the first that priced a mandatory convertible |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC | None closed in the graded packet. The category's week was a repricing: CoreWeave's $2.75B 2031 note yielded a record 15.76% on October 29 after Microsoft's capex miss, its five-year CDS eased to 1,041 bp on October 27 from 1,145 bp, Morgan Stanley cut its target to $70 from $99 and Goldman sizes its new debt need at $20-38B ahead of the November 10 print. The offtake that the next facilities will be written against did arrive, in another company's filing: Anthropic's S-1 schedules up to ~$44.6B to Nscale through 2033 and ~$41.3B to Lambda through 2034Prior ~$4.2B closed, all secured against a creditworthy payer: Nebius's $3.5B 364-day senior secured facility from Citi at SOFR+275 bp stepping to +350 (data-centre development, GPU procurement; 'sequencing' ahead of asset-backed deals against >$40B of investment-grade contracts) and Crusoe's $700M Neuberger facility secured on ordered gas generators for behind-the-meter power. Atlas Energy's $424M SOFR+250 bridge backed by customer cost-reimbursement agreements funds power equipment for data-centre projects and is carried in text. CoreWeave: CDS 1,145 bp, unsecured ~15-16%, no new issue; IFR counts five data-centre IPOs pulled or delayed · Down | Indirect; no neocloud revenue line in the packet. CoreWeave reports Q3 on November 10 with ~$52B of total loan and lease obligations; Microsoft said third-party capacity deliveries slipped into H1 2027 (deferred, not lost revenue for the suppliers) and Alphabet said it began renting third-party compute at the end of Q3 and will ramp in Q4Prior No neocloud revenue line. CoreWeave's backlog stands at $104B against a Bernstein estimate of ~$85B of further financing needed and $29.7B of delayed-draw term loans already secured via SPVs; Nebius cites >$40B of investment-grade customer contracts (Microsoft, Meta) as the collateral base for future asset-backed deals; Crusoe cites >6 GW of gross capacity under contract. None is revenue; the pattern watch says the market is discounting all three for upstream delivery risk · Flat | n/a | Down on capital in: nothing closed after last week's $4.2B; the week's event is the price of the category's unsecured paper, which set a record |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment | $9B charted: NAVER's $9B GPU and data-centre SPV with Brookfield (grade 4), an infrastructure-fund vehicle whose structure also unlocks NAVER's equity stake from NVIDIA. Two further APAC closings are carried in text, not charted, because they finance shell and power rather than compute: AirTrunk's A$4.25B (~US$3B) green loan for a Sydney campus at roughly US$7.5M per MW and STT GDC's JPY 93B (~US$0.6B) Japan financing. Korean memory capex (Samsung KRW 84.4T for FY26; SK hynix's KRW 1,100T long-range plan) is supplier capex and is carried in text, not in this row. Enterprise deployment capital: none closed; Foxconn says AI server capacity is booked 18-plus months out with demand from model developers and clouds while enterprises are 'not yet fully adopting' (grade 4)Prior No closed deployment programme. Reuters reports ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent ordering more than 3 million export-compliant RTX PRO 5500 cards (>$35B at ~$11,400 each) against a ~3 million global 2027 cap, with partners told to expect 5-10% fills (single-outlet exclusive, grade 3; orders, not capital; carried in text). Tesla cut 2026 capex to ~$20B from >$25B while targeting 400 MW of SI training compute by year-end, with $30B of bank facilities (a $20B three-year DDTL, a delayed-draw term loan that can be drawn over time, plus $10B of revolvers) in place and undrawn. NVIDIA's DSX POD (seven Vera Rubin NVL72 racks per truck-shippable container, 14-day on-site deployment, early-2027 deliveries) is product, not finance · Up | IndirectPrior Indirect · Flat | n/a | Up on capital in: one APAC GPU vehicle charted at grade 4, two shell-and-power financings carried in text; the enterprise half of the category stays at zero |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek
- Capital in
- ~$40B committed as lease finance, not equity, and not yet funded: SpaceX's binding commitment letter (8-K, October 26) for a master finance lease with an Apollo-managed lessor covering ~$40B of aggregate principal payments for its SI (Super Intelligence, the former xAI) segment, closing expected before year-end with schedules starting in H1 2027; the methodology charts committed capital visible in filings, and the house measurement carries the structure. No closed lab equity. Anthropic's S-1 is public (up to $100B targeted, pricing the week of November 16, ~$1.5T valuation talk; Reuters and IFR) and is carried in text until it prices. OpenAI's round is reported cut to ~$20B at $1.25T (FT) with ~$11B committed (WSJ); grade 3; text only. The $63B Broadcom XPU SPV for Anthropic is lender and vendor capital whose cash goes to Broadcom, not to the lab, and is carried in the narrativevs What W43 reported as a tranche-priced ~$40B GPU SPV for SpaceX's SI segment arrived this week as a master finance lease commitment; the instrument changed, the size did not. No closed lab equity last week. OpenAI was reported finalising up to $30B at a $1.25T pre-money valuation led by UAE investors and Coatue, trimmed from $1.4T (CNBC, Bloomberg; grade 3; carried in text, not charted). Bloomberg had the SpaceX vehicle's $25-30B subordinated tranche, previously mid-8%, under renegotiation; Semafor (outside the graded packet) had ~8.3% subordinated against ~7.75% chip-backed. Anthropic's public S-1 slipped past October 23 with the roadshow still the week of November 9. The lab layer's other capital object is the SpaceX SI segment (the former xAI, reported as a SpaceX segment since the merger) · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$67B annualised, unchanged: Anthropic's filed S-1 confirms Q2 2026 revenue of $11.6B with $1.0B of operating income (8% margin) and leaves Q3 blank, while Reuters reports Q3 told to investors at $16.8B (+45% quarter on quarter), so the run-rate series stands. Consumption billing is 80% of H1 revenue (The Application Layer carries the customer metrics). SpaceX's SI segment (~$30B annualised in Q3, W43) remains in text because the series is Anthropic'svs Anthropic's updated draft S-1 (WSJ, Reuters; a reviewed document, not a filing; grade 4) shows H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B, which reconciles exactly to the $4.7B and $11.6B quarters reported second-hand in prior weeks, so the Q3 $16.8B and the ~$67B annualised chart value stand unchanged. The first filed frontier-lab segment line arrived from a different lab: SpaceX's SI segment at $7.56B for Q3 (+195% QoQ, $431M operating income, $4.95B adjusted EBITDA), about $30B annualised; it is carried in text because the series is Anthropic's run-rate · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/a (cross-entity: the lease capital is SpaceX's and the run-rate series is Anthropic's; see narrative)Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
The lab layer's capital event is a lease commitment, and the methodology counts committed capital visible in filings regardless of instrument, so the chart carries it. SpaceX's 8-K describes quarterly rent in advance of one-twentieth of financed cost plus a fixed rate set at pricing (reports put the costliest slice at up to 8.75%, against 6.65% on SpaceX's June bonds); the house measurement converts that into a 0% year-five residual and a year-one rent of about 25% of equipment cost, which is the clearing hurdle a lab now pays to put compute off its balance sheet without anyone taking a residual bet. No ratio is charted because the capital belongs to SpaceX's SI segment and the revenue series is Anthropic's; read the row as 'the lab layer added $40B of lease obligations against roughly $67B of run-rate at its largest filer', not as one company's burn. Anthropic's own compute is financed one layer away: the $63B SPV buys Broadcom XPUs and leases them to Anthropic, with the S-1 disclosing ~$161.2B of Broadcom lease rent, total compute commitments CNBC tallies at more than $542B (Amazon $110B non-cancelable, Google ~$114.5B, SpaceX.AI up to $120.5B cancelable on 90 days after early 2027, Microsoft $44.9B, Nscale $44.6B, Lambda $41.3B), and the convertible facility of up to $42B to Broadcom to fund the rent (terms in the big story). The S-1 also discloses that the two cloud partners are financing the customer they serve: Amazon has committed up to $15B of financing in $5B tranches, and Google holds an option to buy up to $10B of Class N shares at the IPO price. None of that is capital into the lab's equity account today; all of it is capital into the lab's suppliers, or from them, against the lab's promise to pay. The big story reads the lease and the SPV as the two reference structures for residual-value risk. The IPO is the dated event: a 424(b)(4) prospectus with a price is what moves this row's capital-in value next (p145).
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | SpaceX master finance lease with Apollo-managed lessor for SI-segment GPUs (binding commitment October 24; closing expected before year-end; anchors BlackRock, GSAM, KKR; up to 8.75% reported on costliest slice) | ~$40B aggregate principal | SEC EDGAR (SpaceX 8-K) |
| 2026-10-26 | Anthropic public S-1 (Nasdaq 'ANT'; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley); share count and price blank; roadshow week of November 9, pricing week of November 16 per Reuters/IFR | Up to $100B targeted (reported) | SEC EDGAR (Anthropic S-1) |
| 2026-10-26 | $63B SPV to purchase Broadcom XPUs leased to Anthropic: first lien BofA, Citi, Morgan Stanley; Blackstone sole second lien; Broadcom residual-value support equal to first lien; first lien reported syndicating at SOFR+187.5 and +150 bp (IFR, outside the graded packet); vendor and lender capital, not charted | $63B | Broadcom IR |
| 2026-10-30 | OpenAI round reported cut to ~$20B at $1.25T (FT) with ~$11B committed (WSJ via Investing.com); grade 3; text only | ~$20B target (reported) | FT; WSJ via Investing.com |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- n/a, $0B, $0B, $10B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $40B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, $4.6B, $4.6B, $67B, $67B, $67B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$38B closed: Meta's $37.5B raise, $25B of Class A common sold at $625 through forward-sale agreements (settlement by November 19, 2027) and $12.5B of 6.50% mandatory convertible preferred, both closed October 29, inside a ~$97.5B program that includes a $60B at-the-market facility; NVIDIA's $3B and AMD's $1B equity purchases were announced alongside at the public price. Microsoft's $25B senior-note sale (first US bond since 2017; more than $100B of orders; Treasuries +45 to +95 bp) is carried from the counterbrief, outside the graded packet, and is not charted. Oracle capped its remaining raising at $20B ($10B equity, $10B debt) through FY30 and is carried in the narrativevs No category financing. Meta's Class C non-voting stock (effective January 19, 2027, distributed 1-for-1) is a capital-raising currency, not capital raised, and is carried in text; Meta's Q3 capex was $34.9B with 2026 narrowed to $135-145B and free cash flow of -$2.12B. Amazon is funding AEP / X-energy's 960 MW Xe-100 SMR feasibility work in Indiana with milestone-based development capital and intended offtake, no FID or amount disclosed. Tesla (an on-prem builder, below) cut capex and left $30B of bank facilities undrawn · Up
- Revenue out
- Indirect; no AI-segment revenue line. The nearest lines moved up together: Google Cloud $30.7B (+103%, 36.2% margin, backlog $561B), Azure +48% (RPO $677B, +73%; OpenAI 11% of Microsoft revenue), AWS $46.0B (+39%, backlog $578B). Microsoft dropped its Copilot paid-seat disclosure for usage metrics (The Application Layer)vs No AI-segment revenue disclosure from a hyperscaler. Anthropic's Claude Platform reached GA on Google Cloud as an Anthropic-operated deployment billed through Marketplace commitments, a distribution statement without a revenue line; Google Cloud's A5X Rubin instances reach GA in November with a first named customer. Meta's Q3 revenue of $64.6B (+26%) is not an AI line · Up
- Burn / rev
- n/a (no AI revenue line; cloud segments are not AI-attributable)Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
Meta chose equity in the week the market was punishing capex, and the structure says why: $25B of common sold forward (a forward sale lets the buyer agree the price now and Meta deliver the shares and collect the cash later, by November 19, 2027, so the dilution is dated rather than immediate) plus $12.5B of mandatory convertible preferred (preferred stock that must convert into common on a set date, carrying a 6.50% dividend until then), inside a ~$97.5B program with a $60B at-the-market facility behind it. The two chip vendors bought in at the public price with no concession, which Cape Fear Advisors (counterbrief) contrasts with AMD's February warrant to Meta at $0.01; the equity is a customer relationship priced as a cornerstone order, not a subsidy. The capex denominator this row sits against is $585-595B of combined 2026 spend at Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon with 2027 higher at all three, Alphabet's free cash flow at -$9.1B (after a $5.2B fine and an inventory build to $13.3B to support TPU system sales) and Amazon's trailing twelve months at -$42.4B; Microsoft's $45.2B of capex (about three-quarters of it on short-lived assets, CPUs and GPUs) missed by about $5B because third-party deliveries slipped into H1 2027, with Q2 guided above $50B. The backlog these rows report is increasingly the labs' own commitments: Anthropic's S-1 schedules roughly $270B to Amazon, Google and Microsoft, about a seventh of the three clouds' ~$1.8T of combined RPO (remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognised; the schedules run to 2034 while RPO is a point-in-time stock, so the share overstates the current-year overlap), OpenAI is 11% of Microsoft's revenue, Microsoft's bookings fell 12% while its RPO rose 73%, and Jassy said inference is 'well over half' of AWS's AI revenue. Oracle is the row's structural datapoint and is not charted: it capped its remaining capital-markets raising at $20B through FY30 (excluding refinancing of $125.3B of notes), promised free cash flow positive in H2 FY28 and above $30B in FY29, and said vendor financing, customer-provided hardware and prepayments would reduce upfront cash needs. The big story reads that as the same movement the Broadcom SPV and the SpaceX lease represent, and the market read it as discipline (+12%). Microsoft's $25B of bonds, outside the graded packet, is the week's reminder that the top of this stack borrows at Treasuries plus 45 to 95 bp while the bottom pays 15.76%.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Meta closes $25B Class A common at $625 via forward-sale agreements (settlement by November 19, 2027) and $12.5B 6.50% Series A mandatory convertible preferred; ~$97.5B program incl. $60B ATM | $37.5B | SEC EDGAR (Meta 8-K); Meta IR |
| 2026-10-26 | NVIDIA $3B and AMD $1B equity purchases in Meta at the public offering price, announced alongside expanded Muse collaboration and Helios rack testing | $4B | NVIDIA Newsroom; AMD IR |
| 2026-10-28 | Oracle Investor Day: remaining capital raising capped at $20B ($10B equity, $10B gross debt) through FY30; FCF positive H2 FY28, $30B+ FY29; vendor financing, customer-provided hardware and prepayments to reduce upfront cash (not charted) | $20B cap | Oracle IR |
| 2026-10-29 | Microsoft $25B senior notes, first US bond since 2017, >$100B orders (Bloomberg: $115B peak), T+45 (short tranche) to T+95 (30-year); outside the graded packet, carried from the counterbrief, not charted | $25B | Microsoft Source; PitchBook (outside the graded packet) |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- n/a, $18B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $38B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC
- Capital in
- None closed in the graded packet. The category's week was a repricing: CoreWeave's $2.75B 2031 note yielded a record 15.76% on October 29 after Microsoft's capex miss, its five-year CDS eased to 1,041 bp on October 27 from 1,145 bp, Morgan Stanley cut its target to $70 from $99 and Goldman sizes its new debt need at $20-38B ahead of the November 10 print. The offtake that the next facilities will be written against did arrive, in another company's filing: Anthropic's S-1 schedules up to ~$44.6B to Nscale through 2033 and ~$41.3B to Lambda through 2034vs ~$4.2B closed, all secured against a creditworthy payer: Nebius's $3.5B 364-day senior secured facility from Citi at SOFR+275 bp stepping to +350 (data-centre development, GPU procurement; 'sequencing' ahead of asset-backed deals against >$40B of investment-grade contracts) and Crusoe's $700M Neuberger facility secured on ordered gas generators for behind-the-meter power. Atlas Energy's $424M SOFR+250 bridge backed by customer cost-reimbursement agreements funds power equipment for data-centre projects and is carried in text. CoreWeave: CDS 1,145 bp, unsecured ~15-16%, no new issue; IFR counts five data-centre IPOs pulled or delayed · Down
- Revenue out
- Indirect; no neocloud revenue line in the packet. CoreWeave reports Q3 on November 10 with ~$52B of total loan and lease obligations; Microsoft said third-party capacity deliveries slipped into H1 2027 (deferred, not lost revenue for the suppliers) and Alphabet said it began renting third-party compute at the end of Q3 and will ramp in Q4vs No neocloud revenue line. CoreWeave's backlog stands at $104B against a Bernstein estimate of ~$85B of further financing needed and $29.7B of delayed-draw term loans already secured via SPVs; Nebius cites >$40B of investment-grade customer contracts (Microsoft, Meta) as the collateral base for future asset-backed deals; Crusoe cites >6 GW of gross capacity under contract. None is revenue; the pattern watch says the market is discounting all three for upstream delivery risk · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The neocloud layer closed nothing and was repriced twice. On October 26 Musk's 'guppy-level death and consolidation' line knocked Nebius, IREN and CoreWeave intraday before they recovered; on October 29 Microsoft's disclosure that third-party deliveries slipped into H1 2027 sent CoreWeave's 2031 note to a record 15.76% yield. The consensus frame ('neocloud equity now trades on hyperscaler capex cadence') is half right: what fell was the equity's tolerance for timing risk, while demand for the category's capacity rose in the same week, with Alphabet renting third-party compute from the end of Q3 and Anthropic's S-1 scheduling ~$86B of commitments to Nscale and Lambda. That is the obligor reading in its purest form: the same GPU is a different credit depending on whose contract sits behind it, and Nscale's and Lambda's next facilities will be written against an S-1 line. CoreWeave's November 10 print, with Goldman's $20-38B new-debt estimate and a $70 Morgan Stanley target, is the dated test of whether a $104B backlog can borrow at anything inside 15%.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | CoreWeave $2.75B 2031 note yield record 15.76%; 5-year CDS 1,041 bp (October 27, from 1,145); Morgan Stanley target $70 from $99; Q3 results November 10 | No new issue | CNBC (neocloud stocks); Reuters |
| 2026-10-26 | Anthropic S-1 compute commitments to neoclouds: Nscale up to ~$44.6B through 2033, Lambda ~$41.3B through 2034 (offtake, not capital) | ~$86B of offtake | SEC EDGAR (Anthropic S-1) |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- n/a, $3B, $4.2B, $1.4B, $0.2B, $5.8B, $4.2B, $0B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment
- Capital in
- $9B charted: NAVER's $9B GPU and data-centre SPV with Brookfield (grade 4), an infrastructure-fund vehicle whose structure also unlocks NAVER's equity stake from NVIDIA. Two further APAC closings are carried in text, not charted, because they finance shell and power rather than compute: AirTrunk's A$4.25B (~US$3B) green loan for a Sydney campus at roughly US$7.5M per MW and STT GDC's JPY 93B (~US$0.6B) Japan financing. Korean memory capex (Samsung KRW 84.4T for FY26; SK hynix's KRW 1,100T long-range plan) is supplier capex and is carried in text, not in this row. Enterprise deployment capital: none closed; Foxconn says AI server capacity is booked 18-plus months out with demand from model developers and clouds while enterprises are 'not yet fully adopting' (grade 4)vs No closed deployment programme. Reuters reports ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent ordering more than 3 million export-compliant RTX PRO 5500 cards (>$35B at ~$11,400 each) against a ~3 million global 2027 cap, with partners told to expect 5-10% fills (single-outlet exclusive, grade 3; orders, not capital; carried in text). Tesla cut 2026 capex to ~$20B from >$25B while targeting 400 MW of SI training compute by year-end, with $30B of bank facilities (a $20B three-year DDTL, a delayed-draw term loan that can be drawn over time, plus $10B of revolvers) in place and undrawn. NVIDIA's DSX POD (seven Vera Rubin NVL72 racks per truck-shippable container, 14-day on-site deployment, early-2027 deliveries) is product, not finance · Up
- Revenue out
- Indirectvs Indirect · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The on-prem and sovereign row moved for the first time in three weeks, and it moved in Asia-Pacific on infrastructure-fund and bank project finance rather than on enterprise GPU purchases. The charted item is NAVER's $9B Brookfield SPV, which buys GPUs and data-centre capacity and, per NAVER's release, unlocks an equity stake from NVIDIA alongside the vehicle, the same vendor-as-financier pattern the big story describes at Broadcom. AirTrunk's A$4.25B green loan (about US$7.5M per MW for a Sydney campus, a shell-and-power figure that excludes the compute) and STT GDC's Japanese yen financing are real-estate project finance and are carried in text so that the row's value counts compute capital only. The enterprise half of the category is the quieter datapoint and the more important one: Foxconn, which builds a large share of the world's AI servers, says capacity is booked more than 18 months out and the buyers are model developers and clouds, with enterprises 'not yet fully adopting'; Oracle's investor-day reliance on 'customer-provided hardware' is the hosted layer asking enterprises and labs to bring the capital this row would otherwise record. On the open-weights side, the artifacts that make on-prem deployment possible arrived ahead of their labels for once (Mistral Large 4 under a modified MIT licence, Ling-3.1-flash-1019 under MIT; The Model Pulse), while LFM3 puts a 2B-class omni model in about 1 GB for devices; none of that is capital, and the lever on handset inference still waits for an independent number.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | NAVER GPU and data-centre SPV with Brookfield (Korea); structure unlocks NVIDIA equity stake in NAVER (charted) | $9B | NAVER Corp. |
| 2026-10-27 | AirTrunk A$4.25B green loan for Sydney campus, ~US$7.5M per MW (shell and power; text only, not charted) | A$4.25B (~US$3B) | DC Market Insights |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- n/a, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $9B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a