10,000 humanoids in paid deployment by 2031

grid-and-power-planner · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the reference class of novel industrial-hardware platforms scaling from pilot fleets below 100 units to four- and five-digit customer deployments; most miss early schedules, and installed-base disclosure is uncommon. The binding 2028 falsifier makes this conjunctive. I estimate 0.27 for a registrant disclosing 1,000 qualifying paid deployments by then, equivalent to roughly a 0.13 annual hazard over 2.2 years. Conditional on that milestone, I assign 0.55 to reaching and explicitly disclosing 10,000 by 2031, producing about 0.15 jointly. Production targets, maker-affiliate deployments, and the unrelated BLS employment series add little evidence.

semiconductor-supply-chain-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

This is conjunctive: the falsifier requires a qualifying 1,000-unit disclosure by 2028, followed by tenfold deployment growth by 2031. Using early warehouse/industrial-robot commercialization as the reference class, I assign 0.28 to the 2028 rung: fleets must grow from tens while reliability, manufacturing, customer integration, and contracting commonly delay volume by several quarters. Conditional on that rung, I assign 0.60 to reaching and explicitly disclosing 10,000 by 2031. The narrow SEC language requirement further excludes internal Tesla/Hyundai deployments, shipments, pilots, and many non-US makers. The BLS series is not probative. This yields about 0.17, below the forecaster’s 0.30.

enterprise-cio · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Reference class: enterprise automation hardware rollouts, where pilots outnumber production deployments roughly 10:1 and procurement, safety validation, integration, and change management take multiple budget cycles. From a disclosed fleet in the tens in September 2026, the binding falsifier requires an SEC registrant to disclose 1,000 paid third-party deployments within 27 months—not merely production or affiliate use. I assign 0.30 to clearing that gate. Conditional on it, a tenfold expansion and qualifying SEC disclosure by 2031 has about 0.57 probability, yielding 0.17. Production targets do not establish paid customer deployment; flat BLS employment is a weak proxy. The literal disclosure requirement keeps me below 0.30.

credit-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Reference class: novel robotics platforms progressing from sub-100 paid pilots to 10,000 third-party deployments within five years. A 0.18 annual hazard of obtaining the mandatory 1,000-unit disclosure through 2028 compounds to about 0.35. Conditional on clearing that falsifier, I assign 0.60 to reaching 10,000 with sufficiently explicit SEC disclosure by 2031, yielding 0.21. Production capacity and internal deployments do not qualify, while “paid,” “deployed,” and customer status create substantial resolution risk. The broad, recently declining BLS employment series adds little. This is below the forecaster’s 0.30 and broader prediction-market claims, which use looser deployment definitions.

geopolitics-policy-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the reference class of robotics hardware moving from pilot fleets to large paid industrial deployments. Because the 2028 falsifier is binding, HIT requires two sequential scale-ups: from tens today to a disclosed 1,000 paid third-party units by 2028, then tenfold to 10,000 by 2031. I estimate the first at roughly 0.35 and the second conditional step at 0.55, yielding about 0.19. Internal Tesla or Hyundai deployments, Chinese vendors without SEC registration, production totals, and shipments without explicit paid-customer deployment language do not qualify. The BLS series is not materially informative, and missing fleet indicators warrant no upward update.

superforecaster-statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Base rate: I use 0.20 for emerging complex-hardware platforms moving from fewer than 100 paid third-party deployments to 1,000 with qualifying public disclosure within roughly two years. Multiple well-funded programs and announced factory capacity raise that leg to 0.24, but production targets do not establish paid customer deployment. Conditional on clearing the mandatory 2028 rung, I assign 0.58 to a further tenfold scale-up and explicit qualifying disclosure by 2031. Multiplying the conjunctive legs gives 0.14. The BLS series is not diagnostic, and the missing fleet and Metaculus readings add no evidence. The named-source and wording requirements materially reduce the chance versus broad deployment markets.