NVIDIA China share stays under 10% through FY2029

grid-and-power-planner · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Reference class: three-year persistence of U.S. technology export restrictions and geographic revenue shares starting within one percentage point of a cutoff. FY2026’s 9.1% leaves little cushion. The latest $96.2 billion quarterly total supports denominator growth but does not measure China, so the 0.98 structural prior overweights a numerator-free trend. Licensed H200 sales or later policy relaxation could lift China above 10% in at least one year, especially as companywide growth decelerates. I estimate roughly 0.84, 0.80, and 0.78 conditional annual survival; policy correlation offsets some naive compounding, while the separate-disclosure requirement adds miss risk.

semiconductor-supply-chain-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

My reference class is multi-year semiconductor export-control regimes, where restrictions persist but licensing and product redesign create recurring reopening risk. Fiscal 2026 starts only modestly below the threshold at 0.091. Rapid total-revenue growth strongly helps, and the supplied quarterly series supports that denominator thesis, but it provides no China numerator. Licensed H200 sales could lift China revenue materially, especially as overall growth decelerates in fiscal 2028-2029. The three-year conjunction compounds threshold-crossing risk. I also penalize the thesis because, after several sub-threshold years, NVIDIA could stop separately presenting China; the rule counts that as a miss. The denominator-only structural prior therefore overstates confidence.

enterprise-cio · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

My reference class is three-year persistence of country revenue shares around a reporting threshold during changing trade controls, not revenue-growth extrapolations. FY2027 is likely below 10%: the reported FY2026 share was 9.1%, the FY2027 denominator is expanding rapidly, and baseline China data-center revenue is zero. I assign 0.88 to FY2027, then conditional survival of 0.78 and 0.76 for FY2028–29, plus 0.95 for continued separate disclosure and timely filing: about 0.50. Licensing creates a pathway for the numerator to recover. The structural prior captures denominator growth but not policy-driven China sales or the explicit disclosure-failure clause.

credit-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Reference class: three-year survival of a near-threshold geographic revenue share under a volatile trade-control regime. Fiscal 2026 began at 9.1%, while the supplied quarterly revenue run-rate makes the fiscal 2027 denominator protective. However, licensed H200 sales can lift the numerator, and policy easing or slower aggregate growth raises later breach risk. I assign 12%-18% annual breach hazards; allowing for their correlation gives roughly 0.64 for all three economic tests, then a 3-point penalty for the disclosure/basis failure clause. This is below 0.85 because the 0.98 structural prior extrapolates total revenue without modeling China revenue or the conjunctive filing requirement.

geopolitics-policy-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the reference class of export-control regimes over three years: restrictions usually persist, but licensing, product redesigns, diplomatic bargaining, and enforcement gaps create meaningful revenue recovery risk. FY2026 starts narrowly below the threshold at 9.1%. Rapid non-China growth makes FY2027 favorable, although licensed H200 sales could materially raise the numerator. By FY2028–FY2029, China’s large accelerator demand and multiple policy-reset opportunities increase the chance that at least one year reaches 10%. Because the test is conjunctive, correlated annual estimates around 0.75–0.82 do not justify 0.85 for all three. I also apply a small penalty for changed geographic disclosure, which automatically causes a miss.

superforecaster-statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Base rate: I use 0.50 for a geography sitting within one percentage point of a cutoff to remain on the same side in three consecutive annual filings. Rapid total-revenue growth and export controls raise the estimate, but FY2026 was only 9.1%, licensed H200 sales create numerator upside, and policy can change over 2.5 years. This is a three-leg conjunction plus a named-line, named-basis disclosure requirement; correlated outcomes still compound failure risk, and any disclosure change loses. The 0.98 structural prior extrapolates total revenue while omitting China revenue. The stated 0.85 also exceeds its own 0.65 FY2028 milestone, which upper-bounds the full conjunction.