The frontier tier keeps its price through 2028

grid-and-power-planner · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Using premium flagship first-party API launches—not fixed-capability inference costs—as the reference class, I assign about a 0.20 annual hazard that competition or efficiency pushes the index leader below $20. Compounded over 2.31 years, that gives roughly 0.60 survival; I trim for leaderboard discontinuation and resolution-against ambiguity. Starting at $50 provides substantial cushion, and moving-frontier models can retain scarcity pricing while older capabilities cheapen. Conversely, a 60% list-price reduction is modest relative to historical inference-cost declines, and a cheaper model could take first place. Neither leading indicator supplied a current reading. The named index and pricing field must also remain available.

semiconductor-supply-chain-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Reference class: moving-frontier flagship API list prices, rather than constant-capability inference prices. The supplied $50 baseline leaves a 60% decline before failure, while frontier leaders can preserve premiums through scarce compute, high-effort inference, and product segmentation. Against that, rapid hardware/software cost declines and competition make a sub-$20 leader plausible by late 2028. I assign roughly a 15% annual hazard that frontier pricing crosses below $20; compounded over 2.3 years this gives about 0.69 survival, reduced to 0.64 for leaderboard discontinuation, pricing-definition changes, and snapshot risk. This is below the forecaster’s 0.70.

enterprise-cio · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Reference class: successive first-party frontier API generations since commercial LLMs began, a sparse and volatile sample. Starting at $50, failure requires more than a 60% list-price cut while the measured frontier advances; constant-capability cost declines therefore overstate downward pressure. Premium prices can persist because frontier models consume more inference compute and vendors can price-discriminate, but competition, distillation, and falling serving costs create regime-change risk. I assign a 0.16 annual hazard of falling below $20; compounded over 2.31 years gives about 0.67 survival. Allowing 0.03 for index discontinuation, endpoint ambiguity, and snapshot noise yields 0.64.

credit-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

My reference class is premium flagship API pricing across successive frontier-model generations over two-to-three years. Starting from $50 provides a substantial cushion: resolution requires the qualifying leader’s standard output price to fall more than 60%. Moving-frontier capability, scarcity and high inference intensity support continued premium pricing, unlike constant-capability price trends. I assign roughly a 17% annual hazard of a pricing-regime shift below $20; compounded through 2028, then allowing modest index-discontinuation and resolution-ambiguity risk, yields 0.62. Competition, cheaper near-frontier substitutes and falling compute costs make the forecaster’s 0.7 somewhat optimistic, especially with no current indicator readings.

geopolitics-policy-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Reference class: successive frontier API launches in the three-year history supplied, where top nominal output prices stayed at $50–$75 even while constant-capability inference cheapened. The current $50 price has a 60% cushion over the threshold, and the moving leaderboard tends to select costly new capability rather than fixed capability. I nevertheless use about a 17% annual hazard that competition, architectural efficiency, or a low-priced leader pushes the top qualifying model below $20; compounded over 2.3 years, plus a small discontinuation risk, this leaves 0.64. Two or more release cycles and absent indicator data justify discounting the forecaster’s 0.70.

superforecaster-statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use a 0.60 base rate for a two-to-three-year window in which the year-end capability leader among major first-party APIs retains an output price above $20. The supplied $50 starting point helps: a miss requires a fall below $20, and moving-frontier pricing is stickier than constant-capability pricing. Against that, two model generations create meaningful chances that a cheaper rival tops the index; benchmark-normalized inference declines remain directionally relevant. I model about a 0.17 annual hazard of crossing below $20, plus a small penalty for index discontinuation or resolution ambiguity. With no live indicator readings or calibration table supplied, the forecaster’s 0.70 appears too confident.