Radar · arena · as of September 7, 2026
Hyperscaler capex, the debt behind it, neocloud financing, and where credit stress shows first. One market call, flagged as such.
Sharpest call. 45% that By 2029-12-31 at least one of Alphabet, Microsoft, or Amazon discloses in a Form 10-K or 10-Q that the estimated useful life of servers, or of a separately identified class of AI accelerators, has been reduced to four years or less. The card.
by end-2027 · Brier-scored
50%vs 33% implied · engine 26%
The First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund (GRID) delivers a cumulative NAV total return for calendar years 2026 and 2027 at least 15 percentage points above the S&P 500 Index total return over the same period.
leans above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
40%vs 30% implied · engine 63%
Combined purchases of property and equipment by Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta for the first nine months of 2027 grow less than 30% over the first nine months of 2026, as reported in their Q3 2027 Forms 10-Q.
leans above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
by end-2029 · milestone ladder
45%vs 15% implied · engine 82%
By 2029-12-31 at least one of Alphabet, Microsoft, or Amazon discloses in a Form 10-K or 10-Q that the estimated useful life of servers, or of a separately identified class of AI accelerators, has been reduced to four years or less.
far above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2029the card ↗
70%vs 45% implied · engine 88%
By 2029-12-31 at least one US-listed GPU cloud provider (CoreWeave, Nebius, or another SEC registrant whose primary business is renting AI accelerators) discloses a payment default, covenant breach, distressed debt exchange, or bankruptcy filing.
clearly above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2029the card ↗
Public series with the on-track and off-track thresholds registered with each thesis. Status is computed, not narrated.
Shortest disclosed server useful life, big three cloudsno data
— years
on track <= 5 · off >= 6manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Amazon depreciation and amortization (quarterly)between
20B usd
on track >= 22B · off < 17Bsec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-06-30
CoreWeave total debt (long-term debt plus current portion)off track
24.9B usd
on track >= 45B · off < 30Bsec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-03-31
ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spreadoff track
2.65 percent
on track >= 4.5 · off < 3fred ↗
series as of 2026-09-03
CoreWeave quarterly interest expenseoff track
558M usd
on track >= 900M · off < 600Msec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-06-30
GRID year-to-date NAV total return minus S&P 500 total returnno data
— percentage-points
on track >= 5 · off < -5manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Industrial production, electrical equipment, appliances, and componentsbetween
101.42 index-2017-100
on track >= 108 · off < 100fred ↗
series as of 2026-07-01
Alphabet purchases of property and equipment (quarterly)on track
35.7B usd
on track < 56B · off >= 64Bsec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-03-31
Amazon purchases of property and equipment (quarterly)on track
54.2B usd
on track < 65B · off >= 75Bsec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-06-30
Meta purchases of property and equipment (quarterly)on track
19B usd
on track < 40B · off >= 46Bsec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-03-31