Radar · arena · as of September 7, 2026
Assistant usage, subscription revenue, ad and search share, and on-device adoption, using only numbers that companies or agencies publish.
Sharpest call. 70% that Alphabet's reported Google Search & other revenue grows year over year in every fiscal year from 2026 through 2032, with no annual decline despite AI assistants taking query share. The card.
by end-2027 · Brier-scored
70%vs 45% implied · engine 59%
OpenAI does not publicly state a weekly active user count of 1.5 billion or more for ChatGPT or its combined products in any first-party disclosure dated on or before 2027-12-31.
clearly above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
by end-2029 · milestone ladder
60%vs 79% · engine 51%
OpenAI publicly states an annualized revenue run rate of at least $100 billion, or reports a quarter with revenue of at least $25 billion, in a first-party disclosure dated on or before 2028-12-31.
clearly below consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
2030–2035 · falsifier tracked
70%vs 40% implied · engine 52%
Alphabet's reported Google Search & other revenue grows year over year in every fiscal year from 2026 through 2032, with no annual decline despite AI assistants taking query share.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves March 31, 2033the card ↗
Public series with the on-track and off-track thresholds registered with each thesis. Status is computed, not narrated.
Google Search & other revenue, year-over-year growth (latest quarter)no data
— percent
on track >= 8 · off < 3manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Google global search engine market share (StatCounter)no data
— percent
on track >= 85 · off < 80manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
OpenAI stated weekly active users (latest first-party figure)no data
— billions
on track < 1.25 · off >= 1.4manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Share of US adults who have used ChatGPT (Pew)no data
— percent
on track <= 52 · off >= 60manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
OpenAI stated annualized revenue run rateno data
— usd-billions
on track >= 60 · off < 45manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
OpenAI stated paid subscribersno data
— millions
on track >= 75 · off < 55manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07