Radar · arena · as of September 7, 2026
Who makes the accelerators, who packages them, and how much of the spend leaves the incumbent. Resolution runs through issuer filings, Epoch AI hardware data, and public shipment disclosures.
Sharpest call. 50% that Broadcom's reported quarterly AI semiconductor revenue reaches at least 25% of NVIDIA's Data Center segment revenue for the nearest-ending NVIDIA fiscal quarter in at least one quarter reported on or before 2027-12-31. The card.
by end-2027 · Brier-scored
50%vs 20% implied · engine 9%
Broadcom's reported quarterly AI semiconductor revenue reaches at least 25% of NVIDIA's Data Center segment revenue for the nearest-ending NVIDIA fiscal quarter in at least one quarter reported on or before 2027-12-31.
clearly above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
25%vs 10% implied · engine 7%
NVIDIA reports at least one fiscal quarter, in an earnings release dated on or before 2027-12-31, in which Data Center segment revenue is lower than the immediately preceding fiscal quarter.
clearly above consensus · 1 rungs · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
by end-2029 · milestone ladder
50%vs 25% implied · engine 55%
Epoch AI's GPU Clusters dataset lists at least one single-site AI cluster with estimated 16-bit performance of 1e22 FLOP/s or more, with status operational and an operational date on or before 2028-12-31.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves March 31, 2029the card ↗
2030–2035 · falsifier tracked
35%vs 15% implied · engine 80%
In at least one calendar quarter ending on or before 2031-12-31, NVIDIA's Data Center revenue is less than 50% of the merchant AI accelerator revenue pool, defined as NVIDIA Data Center plus AMD Data Center segment plus Broadcom AI semiconductor plus Marvell Data Center segment revenue.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2031the card ↗
Public series with the on-track and off-track thresholds registered with each thesis. Status is computed, not narrated.
Broadcom AI semiconductor revenue, quarterlyno data
— USD billions
on track >= 24 · off < 20manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
NVIDIA Data Center revenue, quarterlyon track
96.22 USD billions
on track <= 110 · off > 130sec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-07-26
NVIDIA share of four-vendor pool, quarterlyno data
— ratio
on track <= 0.68 · off > 0.76manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
AMD Data Center segment revenue, quarterlyoff track
11.54 USD billions
on track >= 20 · off < 12sec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-06-27
Largest operational cluster, 16-bit FLOP/s (Epoch)off track
2.73e20 FLOP/s
on track >= 2.00e21 · off < 1.20e21epoch ↗
series as of 2025-07-22
NVIDIA quarterly revenue (proxy for accelerator shipments)between
96.22 USD billions
on track >= 120 · off < 95sec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-07-26
NVIDIA total quarterly revenue (XBRL)on track
96.22 USD billions
on track < 105 · off >= 115sec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-07-26
NVIDIA accounts receivable and inventory growthon track
31.58 USD billions
on track >= 30 · off < 20sec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-07-26