Radar · arena · as of September 7, 2026
How fast AI shows up in budgets, production systems, filings, and productivity statistics. Resolution runs through SEC filings, BLS series, and disclosed seat counts.
Sharpest call. 45% that BLS national employment of customer service representatives (SOC 43-4051) in the May 2032 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics is at least 30% below the May 2025 level of 2,595,750, that is below 1,817,000. The card.
by end-2027 · Brier-scored
55%vs 35% implied · engine 46%
The share of US businesses reporting current AI use in the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey stays below 30% in every biweekly collection period through the end of 2027.
clearly above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
by end-2029 · milestone ladder
70%vs 25% implied · engine 91%
BLS payroll employment in computer systems design and related services (NAICS 5415, series CES6054150001, seasonally adjusted) prints at or below 2,300 thousand in at least one month with a reference period on or before 2029-11-30, about 6% below its 2024 peak, while BLS projects the industry to grow 15.8% over the decade.
far above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2029the card ↗
60%vs 25% implied · engine 29%
Microsoft publicly states at least 100 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats in an earnings release, earnings call, or SEC filing dated on or before 2028-12-31.
far above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
2030–2035 · falsifier tracked
45%vs 10% implied · engine 39%
BLS national employment of customer service representatives (SOC 43-4051) in the May 2032 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics is at least 30% below the May 2025 level of 2,595,750, that is below 1,817,000.
far above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves June 30, 2033the card ↗
Public series with the on-track and off-track thresholds registered with each thesis. Status is computed, not narrated.
OEWS national employment, customer service representativesbetween
2.6M employees
on track <= 2.4M · off >= 2.6Mbls ↗
series as of 2025-12-31
US nonfarm business labor productivity, quarterly growthoff track
1.4 percent-annualized
on track >= 2.5 · off < 1.5bls ↗
series as of 2026-06-30
Employment, computer systems design and related servicesbetween
2,363 thousands
on track <= 2,340 · off >= 2,380bls ↗
series as of 2026-08-31
Software development job postings on Indeed (US)between
74.61 index-feb-2020-100
on track < 65 · off >= 85fred ↗
series as of 2026-08-28
US nonfarm business labor productivity, quarterly growthoff track
1.4 percent-annualized
on track >= 2.5 · off < 1.5bls ↗
series as of 2026-06-30
Paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats (latest disclosed)no data
— millions
on track >= 50 · off < 40manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Microsoft 365 commercial paid seatsno data
— millions
on track >= 480 · off < 460manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
BTOS national current AI use rateno data
— percent
on track < 26 · off >= 30manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
US nonfarm business labor productivity, quarterly growthon track
1.4 percent-annualized
on track < 2.5 · off >= 3.5bls ↗
series as of 2026-06-30